0 sats \ 12 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 14 Aug \ parent \ on: MicroStrategy, IN-Q-TEL, & the CIA conspiracy
China now dominates global trade in a similar manner to how the USA did when it assumed global monetary hegemony as the issuer of the global reserve currency.
Already China provides the trade payments capacity for Iran and Russia, and gets discounted oil and gas, while Iran and Russia attack western backed territories Israel and Ukraine.
China has developed and already uses its CBDC Yuan to facilitate international trade payments as it was specifically designed to be an alternative to the USD SWIFT Network.
Perhaps Bitcoin could be the next reserve currency but its a big leap to assume it will be given history and given current trends and given Bitcoins failure to date to enable any significant trade level MoE.
China doesn't export energy, raw materials, or security at any real scale so it is incapable of having a world reserve currency... Pockets of trade do not mean it has a lasting network effect, I don't even think the states that use it denominate anything lasting in it.
This is why Bitcoin is inevitable as world reserve and sooner not later.
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After WW2 USA held more than 1/2 the worlds manufacturing capacity. It made the cars and fridges and other manufactured chattels essential to a modern industrial economy. It also imported the raw materials required. Raw materials suppliers are rarely price setters and are naturally the first target of any hegemony(look at the tragedy of most oil producing nations- look at Iran and Russia now under Chinas yoke).
USAs resource hegemony started with Latin American commodities more than a century ago.
Today China dominates both the production of the chattels a modern economy, while still contesting the highest levels for example chip production currently held by Taiwan, and the raw materials commodity markets it buys from to supply its manufacturing.
Most nations need to trade with China or suffer significant economic disadvantage.
Dominating both export and import markets of most nations globally is the position from which to quite naturally gain global monetary hegemony- it is how the US did it.
Domination of global trade has been the corollary for monetary hegemony since The Rom,an Empire.
Whether Bitcoin can change that historic power dynamic is unproven and looks unlikely, if not impossible.
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Dollar became reserve not because is could produce stuff, but because the US was stable
You can't produce stuff if you're unstable
Lack of natural resources, including defensible geography, demographics, and rule of law, are requirements for stability
Chinas manufacturing can disappear overnight, unlike when Europe was bombed out and US had leverage... China has no such leverage, it has bad geography, demographics, no expeditionary force... it's not even remotely comparable.
That's the point, fiat is temporary, not just the current fiat. All fiat. There's no where to run after the dollar, because we no longer live in the world in which it was created.
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US was 'stable' in part because of its distance from Europe and the devastation of WW2. USA only entered WW2 after it was invaded but never suffered the destruction of its main industrial base.
The world is now dependent upon Chinese manufactured goods. The USA cannot declare war on China because that would bankrupt many of the USAs biggest corporates who are so seriously dependent upon Chinese production chains. Fiat money is a form of state leverage- leveraging upon the monetary wealth of your citizens to wage war or expand your economy or to fund whatever woke project. China is using fiat capital issuance to build a global trade infrastructure network.
In the west the banks have become parasites capturing fiat capital issuance and using it to rentseek non productive fiat debt- a lot of it housing debt. The governments of the west have become subservient to the banks while China still maintains control over banks and direction of capital flows. China is now supporting proxy war military attack upon Western backed territories and intends to expand its sphere of dependent states as the logic of hegemony dictates. IMO the outcome cannot be easily predicted or prejudged.
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You are pretty much describing the status quo.
I believe bitcoin will be the global reserve currency but it may take 100+ years for that to happen. No where near it now. The dollar still has a lot of legs. I don't think it is anywhere near collapse. But, I could be wrong and things can move fast. Might be good to have a little bitcoin in case you need it :)
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I see the contest between China and the West for domination and control of global resources and protocols increasing in tempo over the next decade- not sure which way things will go but its happening soon with Taiwan being Chinas symbolic objective both symbolizing Chinese reunification and the global power to achieve that.
China will want to be in a position where such a takeover will not be contested therefore the current testing of Western resistance in Ukraine and the Middle East.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west
Yes, agree, great to hold some Bitcoin as a neutral and censorship resistant store of value in such times- and a positive action for neutrality, freedom and non violent revolution.
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You're literally linking deep state media articles about geopolitics, it's fake.. there's no east west power struggle... There are globalists and nationalists
Globalists want you thinking in fiat terms
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correct analysis:
citizen of the world vs citizen of a nation
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'there's no east west power struggle'
Tell that to people in the Ukraine or Gaza.
What actual factual content of the article to you dispute ?
Do you deny that such a pact was signed between China and Russia days before Russian invasion of Ukraine?
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Both have been bloodlands for centuries if not thousands of years, doesn't imply a currency war between two powers that couldn't be more remote. Is it used as proxy? Sure but between globalists and the military industrial complex but not the US or Chinese nationalists.
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Who are the globalists and who are the military industrial complex according to your rendition?
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The international banking cartel that controls the world through a fiat standard, same people that put out the media you read, of which the MiC is a laundering/enforcement arm
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