A couple days ago I DMd James on Nostr to ask if he would do an AMA on SN. He doesn't seem to be very active on Nostr but hopefully he sees it and responds.
Former Wall Street guy. He is into Bitcoin now. He is part of the Bitcoin opportunity fund. He writes a macro newsletter called the Informationist and does a lot of podcast interviews in the bitcoin and macro space.
Here's something I don't get: some of these analysts are saying the carry trade is 50-75% "unwound" -- which I assume means 50-75% of people who were selling their japanese bonds took them off the market -- but japanese bond rates are still near 0% and usa bond rates are still near 5%. Doesn't that mean the japanese carry trade is just about as profitable as it was before? Wouldn't the folks who stopped selling japanese bonds want to start selling them again immediately, since the japanese government still isn't paying much to bond holders? Isn't "borrow yen, buy anything else" still a good trade by the same metrics that produced the problem? If so, I don't think it will stay "unwound" for long.
I think you're right, particularly since it seems there is no way in hell the BOJ will try raising rates again anytime soon. In the meantime:
There’s likely still trillions of leveraged dollars piled into the carry trade, and, as the saying goes, it may take a while for that goat to make its way through the boa.
A couple days ago I DMd James on Nostr to ask if he would do an AMA on SN. He doesn't seem to be very active on Nostr but hopefully he sees it and responds.
That would be a major coup. Good move
#644892
You da man
Who is this James guy?
Former Wall Street guy. He is into Bitcoin now. He is part of the Bitcoin opportunity fund. He writes a macro newsletter called the Informationist and does a lot of podcast interviews in the bitcoin and macro space.
Okay, I am going to have to check it out. What are your thoughts on the guy?
Big fan of his work. Siggy is as well.
Is he on Telegram?
Don't know
Here's something I don't get: some of these analysts are saying the carry trade is 50-75% "unwound" -- which I assume means 50-75% of people who were selling their japanese bonds took them off the market -- but japanese bond rates are still near 0% and usa bond rates are still near 5%. Doesn't that mean the japanese carry trade is just about as profitable as it was before? Wouldn't the folks who stopped selling japanese bonds want to start selling them again immediately, since the japanese government still isn't paying much to bond holders? Isn't "borrow yen, buy anything else" still a good trade by the same metrics that produced the problem? If so, I don't think it will stay "unwound" for long.
I think you're right, particularly since it seems there is no way in hell the BOJ will try raising rates again anytime soon. In the meantime:
A very well written article! I don't often see such simplified articles these days.
He has the ability to simply explain complex things.
If not a journalist, he must've been a very good teacher.
Greate artical. Well described
1 trillion to 20 trillion. That is a big spread. No matter how you look at it, its a lot of carrying. Does that mean every country is doing this?