💡The Ticking Yen Time Bomb \ stacker news ~econ

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💡The Ticking Yen Time Bomb open.substack.com/pub/jameslavish/p/the-ticking-yen-time-bomb?r=9bii2&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

1656 sats \ 19 comments \ @siggy47 11 Aug econ

Typical Good Lavish take on Japan and the carry trade

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177 sats \ 1 reply \ @supertestnet 11 Aug

Here's something I don't get: some of these analysts are saying the carry trade is 50-75% "unwound" -- which I assume means 50-75% of people who were selling their japanese bonds took them off the market -- but japanese bond rates are still near 0% and usa bond rates are still near 5%. Doesn't that mean the japanese carry trade is just about as profitable as it was before? Wouldn't the folks who stopped selling japanese bonds want to start selling them again immediately, since the japanese government still isn't paying much to bond holders? Isn't "borrow yen, buy anything else" still a good trade by the same metrics that produced the problem? If so, I don't think it will stay "unwound" for long.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 11 Aug

I think you're right, particularly since it seems there is no way in hell the BOJ will try raising rates again anytime soon. In the meantime:

There’s likely still trillions of leveraged dollars piled into the carry trade, and, as the saying goes, it may take a while for that goat to make its way through the boa.

95 sats \ 11 replies \ @grayruby 11 Aug

A couple days ago I DMd James on Nostr to ask if he would do an AMA on SN. He doesn't seem to be very active on Nostr but hopefully he sees it and responds.

51 sats \ 8 replies \ @siggy47 OP 11 Aug

That would be a major coup. Good move

344 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 11 Aug

#644892

20 sats \ 6 replies \ @siggy47 OP 11 Aug

You da man

63 sats \ 5 replies \ @Satosora 12 Aug

Who is this James guy?

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 12 Aug

Former Wall Street guy. He is into Bitcoin now. He is part of the Bitcoin opportunity fund. He writes a macro newsletter called the Informationist and does a lot of podcast interviews in the bitcoin and macro space.