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Here is the Lavish take on the latest bitcoin fad theory. I'm a bitcoin believer, but these theories on bitcoin price kind of annoy me, if I'm being honest. I know Fred Kreuger thinks Giovanni is a hero. I can't help being reminded of the mess created by Plan B's stock to flow model. I'd rather just stay humble and stack sats.
177 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 4 Aug
I too find it nauseating when people obsess over price. I wouldn't mind it so much if they talked at least as much about what they hope to do when they're rich. If getting rich isn't the means to some end, then getting rich is the end goal which I find depressing.
A lot of people wait until they're rich to worry about who they are and what they want in life, and at least from what I can see, it's very difficult to answer these questions when you aren't resource constrained.
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Do you notice they only obsess over the price when it is rising? Once it starts falling, they are very quiet. I also find it kind of nauseating about people wanting to get rich. Is that really the be all and end all of life?
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It's silly to expect economic phenomena to rigorously stick to mathematical trends.
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It has been pretty close to that average.
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Impressively so, but economic laws are fundamentally different from physical laws. Ultimately, they don’t follow precise formulas, because people have agency and they change their behavior once they learn about trends.
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Im actually surprised it has been so close for so long.
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I am too. We’re still very early and I think the large number of completely oblivious people allows these trends to continue.
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Yes, it is still very early. Bitcoin still has a long future ahead of it.
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I hate charts!!! I don't and can never understand them unless they are for other things than Bitcoin.
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53 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford 4 Aug
I find all these theories interesting but that is where it ends for me. When you start believing you get into trouble. Stay humble. Stack sats
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When you start doing things because of the money, the nuance of it wears off quickly.
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I'm not a big fan of these charts and most of them end up proving that they weren't very accurate.
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You have a good opinion. Stacking sats humbly or you will end up like that guy in russia. What a shame...
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43 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 5 Aug
I struggle with price models. It's one thing to model the movement of the moon around the Earth. You watch the movement of bodies, day after day, and build up a dynamical theory that describes the trajectory of the moon. When your model holds up, cycle after cycle, you feel satisfied. Your mathematical model might not represent "reality", but at least it gives you consistent predictive power. The moon won't adjust its behavior to evade your model.
But a public price model is totally different. If you discover a pattern in the price data over time and publish it, wouldn't that information make its way into trading decisions, and thus eventually break down? If you discover market inefficiencies and publish them, the market will eventually become efficient and your model will no longer have an edge.
Maybe I'm off here.
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I saw somewhere that the moon was pulling away and our day might become 25 hours each. So much for that mathematical model!
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Yes, I always thought that about technical analysis, but people who know more about this stuff than me have told me I'm wrong.
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Everyone who has a loud voice wants you to listen to them. Doesnt mean they are always right.
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I'm not too fond of any of these laws, models or price predictions. I'm with you on this and am just a humble stacker.
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I’m fascinated to see how the power law trajectory plays out for this cycle.
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Until Bitcoin reaches some level of mass adoption I don’t believe in any of these theories. It’s a random walk up and to the right over time. When a billion people own bitcoin and pension funds etc are passively investing etc maybe the S2F makes sense.
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Me not understanding anything! I can't trap my thoughts into price levels.
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Especially the people that got into it very early. No one can outperform them!
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What I mean is if people got in early, in 2009, they would be outperforming. They wouldnt need to trade and buy low, sell high. Yes, many scammers lack the conviction. There is one person I am impressed with. @pillar He put his money where his mouth is, and making handsome profit so far.
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70 sats \ 1 reply \ @pillar 5 Aug
I share the opinion that anyone throwing around predictions and blunt statements on what the markets will do is full of shit if they don't share their positions.
Actually, those who disclose their positions without going around throwing predictions probably are the one's worth looking at.
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Yeah, I am impressed with your project. Very clear goals, and laid out very simply. Im looking forward to seeing your next report!
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