The most likely scenario is a spark in the Middle East, starting from Lebanon. 
The White House is a possibility, but I think East Asia, specifically Taiwan, could also be a likely scenario. 
All possibilities are on the table.

Do you have a preferred guess about what it'll be?

I'd say most likely is some big horrific invasion in the Middle East, but the most fun would be a Biden resignation.

Undisciplined

For me, it's also new information, but since there are previous statistics, it makes it interesting and worth keeping an eye on.