The yen is still in crash mode. The moment of intervention will trigger a chain reaction on the bond market when the Japanese central bank sells US government bonds in order to get its hands on dollars and thus pushes up interest rates further. This will put the ECB on notice to keep interest rate spreads to the eurozone as low as possible and stem massive capital flight.
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Let the fireworks begin.
https://bitcoinscoresby.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bitcoin-Waiting.png
The euro goes first. The USD has a loooooong way to go
A few months ago
#314690
#507867
Would you agree that the BOJ seems reluctant to intervene once these supposed red lines are crossed? I have heard the opinion that 200 is a realistic level over the next 6 months, and there will only be intervention if the descent is seen as disorderly?
Yikes! That would correspond to something like 50% price inflation over about 18 months, at least on tradable goods.
Did they really say that 200 is a realistic and acceptable level? I hope this is not the case, it may be too late then...
They are saying it will get there in 6 months. The key for the regulators is that it's a slow, gradual descent.
If the fed doesn't lower US interest rates soon, other fiat currencies will suffer more than they already have.
we are really experiencing one of the biggest shitshows of all time. let's see how the euro will behave if the yen continues to fall
I think I am not wrong in saying that the euro will be one of the losing horses in all this.
absolutely. but it is so difficult, and has been from day one of the euro's introduction, to filter out adequate figures from this non-transparent fog.
I have to believe that behind the scenes the ECB and BOJ are furious at the fed. The US still enjoys the exorbitant privilege of being the reserve currency (for now), but it's only acting out of self interest. Of course it's a delicate balance. A strong dollar will destroy exports.
But always keep in mind that Japan is the strategic partner of the US in the Pacific region. the euro, the moment it became a threat as a reserve currency and settlement layer, immediately became the enemy of the dollar. The Fed will not let the Bank of Japan fall and will offer sufficient swap lines in the event of liquidity problems in the euro-dollar market. I am not so sure about the ECB
Yes, I agree. It might even happen with the euro in the unlikely event that it becomes disorderly. If either currency gets in real trouble the whole world will be devastated. I'm talking about these gradual declines, which slowly make life miserable for the average citizen.
and the debt continues to accumulate point that means that the money supply has to be expanded further and the currency continues to lose purchasing power accordingly. the lower classes of society are literally being pushed into the ground. disgusting
and the debt continues to accumulate point that means that the money supply has to be expanded further and the currency continues to lose purchasing power accordingly. the lower classes of society are literally being pushed into the ground. disgusting
So all these global connections create fragility because everyone has to bail out the weakest link?
A system of interdependence is a bug 🐞 not a feature?
According to some analysts say that interest rates will start to fall by the end of this year, I don't know, anyway if this is the plan of the Japanese central bank, I think they are totally wrong, the future will tell.
the wonderful thing about central bank policy is that it is completely non-transparent. i have no idea at what point the bank will intervene massively. 200 is already another massive devaluation, so I assume it will be there at the latest.
Bank of England intervened in 2022 to ensure the resignation of Truss.
Better not say I am cutting taxes or else bond markets will sink your currency and your political future.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/20/liz-truss-favours-trickle-down-economics-but-results-can-be-trickle-up
https://m.stacker.news/38244
Hahaha. I have been a millionaire twice in Vietnam and Cambodia. So many people are millionaires in Vietnam that they have to remove some zeros to make it manageable, like for example on the menus in cafes.
The Japanese Central Bank will need to do everything they can to defend their currency. I think selling all bonds could be a step in the right direction, but more importantly I think they need to take a position in Bitcoin (5-10%) of their treasury. What other way out is their for Japan?
Inflate the sh.t out of the yen to reduce debt.
And then raise taxes to cover the decrease of Government revenue.
They did it 5x only this year
I am sad only for the Japanese people; the Japanese government, like other governments, is the reason.
all governments are bad. all governments are scams.
"What can be, unburdened by what has been."
Sadly japanese economy got stucked in 1990s with no improvements. The rest of Asia is evolving, Japan still being a 1999 model economy.
Which is crazy because they have such high work ethic expectations and work so many hours. Very unproductive labor. Completely missed the software wave.
1988
Thanks to that my Japanese wife has been totally converted to Bitcoin. Until 2024 she was looking at her Bitcoin wealth in terms of JPY, now she doesn't care anymore if Bitcoin's price decrease in terms of the local currency... And she listens to Bitcoin podcasts hahaha.
Top!
So I’m thinking that the fall in the crypto markets is to do with the macro picture?
With the best will in the world, short-term movements cannot be reconciled with the macro environment, but it is true that we have seen some setbacks in liquidity, especially at the Fed.
The macro picture is all currencies will be sacrificed for the sake of a perceived stable economy. In light of this, if you want savings that move at the speed of light, away from corrupted institutions, your best bet is bitcoin and the macro trend is up up up.
in the japan expat reddit they are posting about feeling the squeeze and feeling bad that they cant afford holidays anymore etc , none of them realise they need to be saving in btc, not yen
And its only the beginning
From 1999:
Milton Friedman argued that the ECB's monetary policy in the euro zone was too tight and that it should do quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, similar to his advice for the Bank of Japan in the late 1990s[1]. Friedman believed the euro was a mistake that would exacerbate economic and political tensions in Europe[2][4].
In 1997, Friedman recommended that the Bank of Japan increase the money supply by buying government bonds to boost economic growth and inflation[1]. However, Japan's current inflation strategy of targeting a 2% rate is exactly what Friedman warned against, as it requires the central bank to actively manage inflation expectations[3].
Friedman believed Japan's economic recovery from the 1970s oil crisis was due to government spending supplementing steady monetary growth, supporting Keynesian theory[5]. He also noted Japan's unique labor dynamics and government-business cooperation helped restrain inflation[5]. However, Friedman cautioned against overemphasizing the benefits of government intervention, arguing Japan's prosperity stemmed from its free market policies[5].
Sources [1] Friedman's Japanese lessons for the ECB - The Market Monetarist https://marketmonetarist.com/2012/08/15/friedmans-japanese-lessons-for-the-ecb/ [2] [PDF] Why the Euro is a Big Mistake - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214327/full [3] Japan's Inflation Strategy Is Exactly What Milton Friedman Warned ... http://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-inflation-strategy-is-exactly-what-milton-friedman-warned-against-1478812240 [4] They Told You So: Economists Were Right to Doubt the Euro https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/19/business/history-echoes-through-greek-debt-crisis.html [5] [PDF] Japan — Free To Choose - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/271046/full
Friedman... nobody is perfect
In theory this should also improve Japans export economic competitiveness
There are a few Japanese products (e.g. electronics, Whisky) that I would LOVE to get a 50% discount on.
What if your country places a 100 percent tariff on Japanese whiskey 🥃?
Why should this happen?
Because you're a doomer and want Japan to collapse without getting export competitiveness out of it?
Japan 🇯🇵 will not collapse.
I don’t know your country tariff policy on spirits. It’s naive to assume zero tariff
When pre tariff prices half, the post tariff prices do to
Sth. like this really exists??
Yen is a node or proxy to global dollar, the rules of the game is changing.
When the rule of the game changes, some player will be mad at debuffing their skills and some will get huge boost and few will be unaffected!
money is like a game.
Indeed, the intervention could trigger a significant chain reaction in the bond market, compelling central banks like the ECB to act swiftly to manage interest rate spreads and prevent capital flight.
Domino theory
The Yen is tied to the dollar. Its not the yen having problems, the problems are in the dollar. Until the USA figures out inflation, the yen will suffer.
It looks like the yen is strengthening? It's above 161 now. Maybe an intervention?
We need to wait. Afterward the market will push into the other direction again and again and again
It would make a good short, especially for someone, ahem, well-connected, to time it right.
Or the eur/usd pair. The next banking crisis will push this one to hell
Bitcoin to the moon