The yen is still in crash mode. The moment of intervention will trigger a chain reaction on the bond market when the Japanese central bank sells US government bonds in order to get its hands on dollars and thus pushes up interest rates further. This will put the ECB on notice to keep interest rate spreads to the eurozone as low as possible and stem massive capital flight.
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212 sats \ 2 replies \ @Scoresby 4 Jul 2024
Let the fireworks begin.
https://bitcoinscoresby.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Bitcoin-Waiting.png
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82 sats \ 1 reply \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
The euro goes first. The USD has a loooooong way to go
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99 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
A few months ago
#314690
#507867
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96 sats \ 16 replies \ @siggy47 4 Jul 2024
Would you agree that the BOJ seems reluctant to intervene once these supposed red lines are crossed? I have heard the opinion that 200 is a realistic level over the next 6 months, and there will only be intervention if the descent is seen as disorderly?
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71 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 4 Jul 2024
Yikes! That would correspond to something like 50% price inflation over about 18 months, at least on tradable goods.
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71 sats \ 11 replies \ @riberet19 4 Jul 2024
Did they really say that 200 is a realistic and acceptable level? I hope this is not the case, it may be too late then...
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75 sats \ 10 replies \ @siggy47 4 Jul 2024
They are saying it will get there in 6 months. The key for the regulators is that it's a slow, gradual descent.
If the fed doesn't lower US interest rates soon, other fiat currencies will suffer more than they already have.
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87 sats \ 8 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
we are really experiencing one of the biggest shitshows of all time. let's see how the euro will behave if the yen continues to fall
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113 sats \ 1 reply \ @riberet19 4 Jul 2024
I think I am not wrong in saying that the euro will be one of the losing horses in all this.
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87 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
absolutely. but it is so difficult, and has been from day one of the euro's introduction, to filter out adequate figures from this non-transparent fog.
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75 sats \ 5 replies \ @siggy47 4 Jul 2024
I have to believe that behind the scenes the ECB and BOJ are furious at the fed. The US still enjoys the exorbitant privilege of being the reserve currency (for now), but it's only acting out of self interest. Of course it's a delicate balance. A strong dollar will destroy exports.
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71 sats \ 3 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
But always keep in mind that Japan is the strategic partner of the US in the Pacific region. the euro, the moment it became a threat as a reserve currency and settlement layer, immediately became the enemy of the dollar. The Fed will not let the Bank of Japan fall and will offer sufficient swap lines in the event of liquidity problems in the euro-dollar market. I am not so sure about the ECB
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54 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
So all these global connections create fragility because everyone has to bail out the weakest link?
A system of interdependence is a bug ๐ not a feature?
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71 sats \ 0 replies \ @riberet19 4 Jul 2024
According to some analysts say that interest rates will start to fall by the end of this year, I don't know, anyway if this is the plan of the Japanese central bank, I think they are totally wrong, the future will tell.
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71 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
the wonderful thing about central bank policy is that it is completely non-transparent. i have no idea at what point the bank will intervene massively. 200 is already another massive devaluation, so I assume it will be there at the latest.
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54 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
Bank of England intervened in 2022 to ensure the resignation of Truss.
Better not say I am cutting taxes or else bond markets will sink your currency and your political future.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/20/liz-truss-favours-trickle-down-economics-but-results-can-be-trickle-up
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145 sats \ 1 reply \ @IamSINGLE 4 Jul 2024
https://m.stacker.news/38244
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28 sats \ 0 replies \ @john_doe 5 Jul 2024
Hahaha. I have been a millionaire twice in Vietnam and Cambodia. So many people are millionaires in Vietnam that they have to remove some zeros to make it manageable, like for example on the menus in cafes.
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83 sats \ 3 replies \ @SatsMate 4 Jul 2024
The Japanese Central Bank will need to do everything they can to defend their currency. I think selling all bonds could be a step in the right direction, but more importantly I think they need to take a position in Bitcoin (5-10%) of their treasury. What other way out is their for Japan?
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
Inflate the sh.t out of the yen to reduce debt.
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62 sats \ 1 reply \ @john_doe 5 Jul 2024
And then raise taxes to cover the decrease of Government revenue.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 5 Jul 2024
They did it 5x only this year
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125 sats \ 2 replies \ @NRS 4 Jul 2024
I am sad only for the Japanese people; the Japanese government, like other governments, is the reason.
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59 sats \ 1 reply \ @ecchipen 4 Jul 2024
all governments are bad. all governments are scams.
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27 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
"What can be, unburdened by what has been."
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92 sats \ 2 replies \ @softglitter2d 4 Jul 2024
Sadly japanese economy got stucked in 1990s with no improvements. The rest of Asia is evolving, Japan still being a 1999 model economy.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 4 Jul 2024
Which is crazy because they have such high work ethic expectations and work so many hours. Very unproductive labor. Completely missed the software wave.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
1988
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62 sats \ 1 reply \ @john_doe 5 Jul 2024
Thanks to that my Japanese wife has been totally converted to Bitcoin. Until 2024 she was looking at her Bitcoin wealth in terms of JPY, now she doesn't care anymore if Bitcoin's price decrease in terms of the local currency... And she listens to Bitcoin podcasts hahaha.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 5 Jul 2024
Top!
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80 sats \ 2 replies \ @cristaiji 4 Jul 2024
So Iโm thinking that the fall in the crypto markets is to do with the macro picture?
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80 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
With the best will in the world, short-term movements cannot be reconciled with the macro environment, but it is true that we have seen some setbacks in liquidity, especially at the Fed.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jp305 4 Jul 2024
The macro picture is all currencies will be sacrificed for the sake of a perceived stable economy. In light of this, if you want savings that move at the speed of light, away from corrupted institutions, your best bet is bitcoin and the macro trend is up up up.
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @stack_harder 5 Jul 2024 freebie
in the japan expat reddit they are posting about feeling the squeeze and feeling bad that they cant afford holidays anymore etc , none of them realise they need to be saving in btc, not yen
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 5 Jul 2024
And its only the beginning
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
From 1999:
Milton Friedman argued that the ECB's monetary policy in the euro zone was too tight and that it should do quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, similar to his advice for the Bank of Japan in the late 1990s[1]. Friedman believed the euro was a mistake that would exacerbate economic and political tensions in Europe[2][4].
In 1997, Friedman recommended that the Bank of Japan increase the money supply by buying government bonds to boost economic growth and inflation[1]. However, Japan's current inflation strategy of targeting a 2% rate is exactly what Friedman warned against, as it requires the central bank to actively manage inflation expectations[3].
Friedman believed Japan's economic recovery from the 1970s oil crisis was due to government spending supplementing steady monetary growth, supporting Keynesian theory[5]. He also noted Japan's unique labor dynamics and government-business cooperation helped restrain inflation[5]. However, Friedman cautioned against overemphasizing the benefits of government intervention, arguing Japan's prosperity stemmed from its free market policies[5].
Sources
[1] Friedman's Japanese lessons for the ECB - The Market Monetarist https://marketmonetarist.com/2012/08/15/friedmans-japanese-lessons-for-the-ecb/
[2] [PDF] Why the Euro is a Big Mistake - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214327/full
[3] Japan's Inflation Strategy Is Exactly What Milton Friedman Warned ... http://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-inflation-strategy-is-exactly-what-milton-friedman-warned-against-1478812240
[4] They Told You So: Economists Were Right to Doubt the Euro https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/19/business/history-echoes-through-greek-debt-crisis.html
[5] [PDF] Japan โ Free To Choose - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/271046/full
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
Friedman... nobody is perfect
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80 sats \ 5 replies \ @kilianbuhn 4 Jul 2024
In theory this should also improve Japans export economic competitiveness
There are a few Japanese products (e.g. electronics, Whisky) that I would LOVE to get a 50% discount on.
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45 sats \ 4 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
What if your country places a 100 percent tariff on Japanese whiskey ๐ฅ?
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17 sats \ 2 replies \ @kilianbuhn 5 Jul 2024
Why should this happen?
Because you're a doomer and want Japan to collapse without getting export competitiveness out of it?
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 5 Jul 2024
Japan ๐ฏ๐ต will not collapse.
I donโt know your country tariff policy on spirits. Itโs naive to assume zero tariff
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @kilianbuhn 5 Jul 2024
When pre tariff prices half, the post tariff prices do to
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
Sth. like this really exists??
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59 sats \ 0 replies \ @ecchipen 4 Jul 2024
Yen is a node or proxy to global dollar, the rules of the game is changing.
When the rule of the game changes, some player will be mad at debuffing their skills and some will get huge boost and few will be unaffected!
money is like a game.
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59 sats \ 1 reply \ @Tutankhamun 4 Jul 2024
Indeed, the intervention could trigger a significant chain reaction in the bond market, compelling central banks like the ECB to act swiftly to manage interest rate spreads and prevent capital flight.
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45 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Jul 2024
Domino theory
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59 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 4 Jul 2024
The Yen is tied to the dollar.
Its not the yen having problems, the problems are in the dollar.
Until the USA figures out inflation, the yen will suffer.
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59 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 4 Jul 2024
It looks like the yen is strengthening? It's above 161 now. Maybe an intervention?
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71 sats \ 2 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
We need to wait. Afterward the market will push into the other direction again and again and again
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59 sats \ 1 reply \ @SpaceHodler 4 Jul 2024
It would make a good short, especially for someone, ahem, well-connected, to time it right.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @GhostofTruth OP 4 Jul 2024
Or the eur/usd pair. The next banking crisis will push this one to hell
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @NaOD 4 Jul 2024 outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.