I was thinking more about @gladstein's bet that Nostr will have at least 1M WAUs by Jan 31, 2026. Not only would I take the over, but I would actually take an order of magnitude over. Maybe much more.
Why?
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Current WAU count is already likely much higher than 30k (if you count reading nostr as active usage).
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Two companies alone will bring way over 1M users. And they've already got Nostr integrations live (Cash App & TIDAL).
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Nostr Wallet Connect is likely to go mainstream as the global bitcoin/eCash payment standard and I expect that every bitcoin/lightning/eCash wallet will adopt it over the next year.
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AI agents coming to Nostr is real. As information goes infinite, Nostr is the only corner of the web where every note is signed (and thus trustworthy). And Nostr + Lightning is the only infra capable of banking these agents such that they can interop with each other and us
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And ofc that's to say nothing of what will actually happen, which is that A) current UX will improve radically (making it easier to onboard noobs to existing use cases) and B) new unexpected nostr use cases (leveraging open identity + WoT) will emerge, surprising even the biggest nostr bulls to the upside.
Do you agree? Am I too bullish? Not bullish enough?