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Crypto is just a bucket for them.
good point
Even if they only allocate 20% to eth which seems about right because eth products usually do about 1/5th the AUM as bitcoin products. That is still another half a billion in outflows.
You should also factor in the possibility of the Biden regime getting really draconian towards bitcoiners. Lots of bitcoin donations are flowing into the Trump campaign and I think that makes us more of a target.
Maybe but I think they have lightened their stance on "crypto" because they know it is a losing issue. No one is a single issue anti-crypto voter but there are a lot of single issue crypto voters. I don't think it is as large a pool as the coinbases of the world like to purport but they obviously got spooked or the eth etf wouldn't never have gotten approved. Odds were at 15% and then suddenly Trump is coming out saying I will protect your bitcoin and crypto and a couple days later the etf is approved.
Maybe so, but they started backing off before Trump started drawing lots of political donations in bitcoin.
I wouldn't underestimate how vindictive they can be. We would not be a difficult group to demonize, if they set their minds to it.
There is also the issue that funds that own the Bitcoin etf (around 20% of the etf market) will also want to allocate to the eth etf. I suspect that won't be new capital but some rotated out of the bitcoin products and into the eth products. (maybe 20% of their holdings). Crypto is just a bucket for them.
I expect a rocky summer and once all this is cleared up and we get a fed pivot in Sept or a signal of a pivot sometime in Q4 the second leg of the bull market will commence.
How low will we go in the interim? Who knows? 50k maybe. There has already been a big reduction in leverage from the ATH and you have already had a big repositioning amongst traders with the eth etf launch (but more of that could occur if eth performs well while Bitcoin drops) so I don't think we see the type of liquidation cascades we saw during the covid sell off and china mining ban but I expect we grind down over the next 4-6 weeks and then consolidate for awhile before moving up again come sept/oct.
Could be wrong. Maybe etf holders are more diamond handed than I expect, funds aren't selling to allocate to eth and only a small portion of Gox coins get sold and the market realizes it got it wrong and we jump back to ATHs by end of July but that seems unlikely.