There is also the issue that funds that own the Bitcoin etf (around 20% of the etf market) will also want to allocate to the eth etf. I suspect that won't be new capital but some rotated out of the bitcoin products and into the eth products. (maybe 20% of their holdings). Crypto is just a bucket for them.

I expect a rocky summer and once all this is cleared up and we get a fed pivot in Sept or a signal of a pivot sometime in Q4 the second leg of the bull market will commence.

How low will we go in the interim? Who knows? 50k maybe. There has already been a big reduction in leverage from the ATH and you have already had a big repositioning amongst traders with the eth etf launch (but more of that could occur if eth performs well while Bitcoin drops) so I don't think we see the type of liquidation cascades we saw during the covid sell off and china mining ban but I expect we grind down over the next 4-6 weeks and then consolidate for awhile before moving up again come sept/oct.

Could be wrong. Maybe etf holders are more diamond handed than I expect, funds aren't selling to allocate to eth and only a small portion of Gox coins get sold and the market realizes it got it wrong and we jump back to ATHs by end of July but that seems unlikely.