It’s impossible to make sense of India’s employment situation — or consumer demand — by only looking at the fifth of the labour force that holds regular jobs. The rest are either self-employed or work when they can find it.
About 110 million toil at 65 million tiny nonfarm jobs scattered across the country. Most of the labour comes from family members. But establishments that do hire outside staff paid employees less than 125,000 rupees ($1,500) a year, on average.
The growth in gross domestic product, which at 8%-plus is the fastest among major economies, is clearly not creating enough employment. Surplus Indian labour is stranded in villages, somehow trying to cope with the double whammy of high cost of living and lack of better-paying formal jobs.
Despite weak rural demand, inflation in villages is 5.3%, whereas in cities it’s close to the central bank’s 4% target. Even inflation expectations are higher in villages.
The reality is actually worse that this. What I can see around me, there are many people who are forced to live under $2 a day. The monthly wages for a primary teachers in private schools are hardly going above $50. What else do I tell you?
Are these higher rural prices primarily driven by food prices?
I remember reading about how the war in Ukraine was driving up canola prices.
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Yes actually, food prices are shooting up here. But not due to Canola. Indians use mustard oil primarily. The secondary is soyabean.
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Hmm, the canola shortage still might be the culprit since globally it's a substitute for the others.
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I agree globally it's a substitute. For India, food inflation has been taking a toll on the economy since 2023, with a number of categories witnessing significant inflation. This includes veggies at +28 per cent YoY, pulses at +17 per cent YoY, cereals at +8.6 per cent YoY, meat and fish at +8.2 per cent YoY, spices at +7.8 per cent YoY and eggs at +7.1 per cent YoY.
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Is any of that fallout from Sri Lanka's disastrous agriculture policies?
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Yes there are a few but they are limited to coffee and a few spices. Nothing much.
It was wheat price that spiked to skies suddenly last year and if I tell you, you won't believe that it went up +50% in a month or two.
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That doesn't really surprise me. Ukraine is one of the largest wheat producers in the world.
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That's not because of Ukraine. India doesn't need to import wheat. It was due to those who hoarded wheat for profiteering.
How do people survive on that?
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How They don't survive on that. The whole family has to work. In town areas in North India, it's still not out of hand. A family of 4 can survive (I mean survival in Indian ways) on a monthly check of $200. Generally all members of a family work (if they can)
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What is survival in the Indian way? I thought they were big into gold?
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Indians are poor beyond belief
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I think those who hold real estate and the Nifty index are doing okay, but those how keep their money in fiat are obviously being debased.
While I am a bitcoiner, many in India are big gold bugs. They often wear it on their wrist, neck and fingers. There are many avenues to moving towards harder money in India.
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Indian people wear gold traditionally. It's in our culture. Our ladies love gold more than they love us. Generally, we buy gold to make 'her happy or special' not for investment purposes.
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The poor got no gold
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woah can't believe the inflation target is 4%
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How can an ordinary teacher in India pull himself out of this shithole and try to earn more for his family, in your opinion?
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They can if they become United but they won't.
There are rules and regulations for minimum wages. Government, with more strictness, can try to change it. But, it also won't do. Current government sees that people are living happily because government is providing free 5kg wheat or rice + 1 kg pulses + 1 litre oil to everyone (more than 800 million people) every month.
Well, social inequalities created by rapid economic growth are a problem, and unfortunately most of us, as Europeans or Americans, will not do anything about it. Reason: it is not in our interest for Indians to produce at a high price. We are consumer countries, living on credit (I am not talking about individuals like me who do not have a penny of debt privately. The main problem is the system in which interest loans are legal and fiat money is produced from debt. These two things make us we live beyond our means and poor countries exploit themselves for a piece of paper.
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poor countries
Do you still include India among your list?
I agree, it actually doesn't necessarily interest everyone but to say that it won't interest anyone from USA and Europe is just not true considering that the balance of trade with EU in 2023 was in favour of India by € 1.46bn.
For US and India
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Cooked and fake numbers , India is the poorest country on the planet right now . Indians literally struggle for vegetarian meals . Indians are fucked beyond belief . The Indian government is the most narcissist governments on the planet