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Do you think this could happen in the medium or long term?
Either... both.
Trade flows scale proportionally with economy size and inversely with distance. As Europe shrinks economically, their trade partners will also shrink, but to a lesser degree.
Over time, economies closer to Asia will grow more and those closer to Europe will shrink.
This makes a lot of sense, if the outlook continues like this, I can see Europe progressively weakening until there is a breaking point, I think we are in for quite a bit of pain.
They might just be at a trade disadvantage, by virtue of being further away from Asia, and that might put downward pressure on their economies.
And combined with the energy problem we have an exciting mix for further chapters of our clown show
I'm afraid Europe is going to have a turning point at some point, but first we're going to have to be sunk in sh*t
EU has a lot of problems to solve for itself.
Especially the power problem.
Geographically, Europe could find itself being the out-of-the-way region, rather than the center. That would give it the same kind of trade disadvantage that Africa and South America currently have.