Recent findings from the Institute of German Economy (IW) reveal a seismic shift in global trade patterns, with China emerging as the dominant player in trade relations with key nations of the Global South since 2019. This marks a significant departure as China overtakes both the European Union (EU) and, subsequently, the United States as the primary trading partner for these nations, as highlighted in the IW study.
Russia, amidst sanctions imposed by Western nations, has seen a surge in its trade share with the 25 examined emerging and developing countries, including Brazil, India, and Mexico, since 2021. Meanwhile, Germany's trade relations with these strategically important regions have stagnated, emphasizing the need for a recalibration of geopolitical trade strategies.
Previously, the EU and the US held sway as the primary trade partners for Global South countries in 2017 and 2018, closely trailed by China. However, China's trade volume with the Global South skyrocketed by 47 percent to over $1.9 trillion USD between 2019 and 2023, as per the study's findings.
Contrastingly, Germany's trade with the examined 25 nations remained relatively stagnant between 2010 and 2020, with marginal increases in total trade volume recorded in 2021 and 2022. Despite these upticks, the proportional shares of German trade with these nations remained unchanged due to substantial trade growth from other countries.
The IW study underscores the imperative for Germany and Europe to reassess the geopolitical dimensions of trade to avert potential economic repercussions. Stay tuned for further insights into the evolving landscape of global trade dynamics.
Geographically, Europe could find itself being the out-of-the-way region, rather than the center. That would give it the same kind of trade disadvantage that Africa and South America currently have.
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31 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 6 May
And combined with the energy problem we have an exciting mix for further chapters of our clown show
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I'm afraid Europe is going to have a turning point at some point, but first we're going to have to be sunk in sh*t
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EU has a lot of problems to solve for itself. Especially the power problem.
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Do you think this could happen in the medium or long term?
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Either... both.
Trade flows scale proportionally with economy size and inversely with distance. As Europe shrinks economically, their trade partners will also shrink, but to a lesser degree.
Over time, economies closer to Asia will grow more and those closer to Europe will shrink.
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This makes a lot of sense, if the outlook continues like this, I can see Europe progressively weakening until there is a breaking point, I think we are in for quite a bit of pain.
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They might just be at a trade disadvantage, by virtue of being further away from Asia, and that might put downward pressure on their economies.
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I am sure China is perfectly content to allow western nations to embroil themselves in global conflicts and fight each other over ideological nonsense domestically while they entrench themselves into frontier markets.
China has resource problems. They are happy to sell junk into developing nations in exchange for energy, minerals, food etc.
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Good summary of the mental state of western politics. Retards... but corrupt
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Actually, China is helping create problems in the usa. They ship a massive amount to the usa so that we create economical and social problems. I cant remember the exact drug...anyone know?
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 6 May
fentanyl
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Yes, thats the one. When you tell people about this, they just scoff. Especially when I was in taiwan...they didnt want to listen. And it is interesting because they know the triad would disrupt the peace if china invaded. They know China is capable of doing these dirty deeds.
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China does help developing countries, but I have also heard the horror stories of them demanding sections of land, high interest loans, and how they demand that the country trade with them. It helps China more than the developing country.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 6 May
There's no real deal making with China out of a weak position
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True, they are just being taken advantage of. Before long, everything will be owned by them.
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China is making great strides but I see it's losing ties with many nations as well.