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From what i can tell, and i can read chinese, is that there's a general lack of concern over china, because it has been saying they will reclaim taiwan for decades.
There's also a lack of fighting spirit, majority of Taiwaneses i know are probably not going to stay to defend the country.
There's however a legit possibility that china will invade taiwan. Xi isnt like previous leader and china is much stronger than what it was.
It used to be that TSM is the worldwide semi con industry that china doesnt want to hurt or else it hurts every trade partners. But china is already losing a lot of international trades in recent years, the game theory does not apply as strong
Yes to your first point… Taiwanese have been dealing with this forever and it’s just part of the normal normal here.
No to your second point. If anything the “fighting spirit” of Taiwanese is higher now post Ukraine invasion. Ukraine has shown that a smaller country can defend itself from a larger one. While Taiwanese are not Ukrainians… they know this is an island and much harder to take than one with a land border. Additionally connection s with Japan and the US have never been stronger here.
While there is a legit possibility of the Xi regime, he also isn’t stupid and realizes a military invasion of Taiwan will be the end of “his China”. He sees himself as Mao 2.0 and take great pride in (what he and his party perceive) as prosperity akin to what Mao faked.
However, China has a lot of problems economically right now and they need to address those. If anything the west removing manufacturing from China (slowly) is the best weapon the west has at the moment. China’s growth is unsustainable and they need to face that.
While there is always a possibility of military action I think the reality will be years of a China fighting Taiwan recognition on the global stage, cyber warfare and more positioning. Not
Much more for the moment.
Ukrainians are battle borne citizens and Russia has been a very aggressive neighbor even before 2014 invasion.
Taiwaneses are all fairly used to a normal life, and from what i can tell, most say they'd just GTFO if a war does happen.
You are right on about Xi wanting to be Mao 2.0, reclaiming taiwan is one of the goal.
He sees the decades long of integrating taiwan through trade bullying and political influence failing, and if he can reclaim taiwan, he'd be getting a landmark milestone.
Look at hong kong, which is China's most successful financial hub by far and the only place capable to make RMB to be internationalised. China crushed it all the same.
Xi is a political first, economy second type of leader.
Agree on the Ukrainian vs. Taiwanese comparison. That being said, I’ve talked to a lot of Taiwanese here that acknowledge that fact yet take pride in it. Basically don’t underestimate the population here along with the fact it’s an island AND the topography of it all.
HK is done, but that was a very different deal from what TW would ever face.
Xi’s vision is “the great reunification” for sure… but I think he is seeing the price he would pay. While he is political first… he always wants to stay in power and not tarnish his “legacy”.
Regardless, it’s going to be an interesting 5 years in this region.
This article is total BS. I live in Taiwan (and am an American). We had our yearly air raid drill, in Taipei/northern Taiwan, a few days ago. It was scheduled, planned, we received notifications on our phones with the exact time, etc.
This happens every year on (or about) this day. We have another later this fall.
On the ground here… no one is doing anything different than they always have. After the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict there was an uptick in people checking preparedness here (I.e. air raid shelters, etc) but regardless of what US news said there were no citizen brigades roaming the streets “training”.
US news LOVES to turn anything in Taiwan into some larger narrative on WW3 while we all just keep living our life daily here.