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Agree on the Ukrainian vs. Taiwanese comparison. That being said, I’ve talked to a lot of Taiwanese here that acknowledge that fact yet take pride in it. Basically don’t underestimate the population here along with the fact it’s an island AND the topography of it all.
HK is done, but that was a very different deal from what TW would ever face.
Xi’s vision is “the great reunification” for sure… but I think he is seeing the price he would pay. While he is political first… he always wants to stay in power and not tarnish his “legacy”.
Regardless, it’s going to be an interesting 5 years in this region.
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Ukrainians are battle borne citizens and Russia has been a very aggressive neighbor even before 2014 invasion.
Taiwaneses are all fairly used to a normal life, and from what i can tell, most say they'd just GTFO if a war does happen.
You are right on about Xi wanting to be Mao 2.0, reclaiming taiwan is one of the goal.
He sees the decades long of integrating taiwan through trade bullying and political influence failing, and if he can reclaim taiwan, he'd be getting a landmark milestone.
Look at hong kong, which is China's most successful financial hub by far and the only place capable to make RMB to be internationalised. China crushed it all the same.
Xi is a political first, economy second type of leader.