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107 sats \ 4 replies \ @SpaceHodler 1 Mar \ parent \ on: Saylor Moon bitcoin
Success in this trade means a very different / rough / tumultuous world shifting with extreme volatility disrupting the fabric of a lot of society as we know it. Government, Real estate, banking, surveillance, education, insurance, AI, etc.
This is a very serious trade, do not take that responsibility lightly. This is also why @saylor appears so serious all the time, he understands the gravity of this situation, and he has game theoried the way to the proverbial black hole finish line. The gravity of $MSTR & #BTC will consume everything around it.
I, too, somehow feel MSTR is going to play a role in disrupting the system in tandem with BTC, although it's still a bit over my head.
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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 1 Mar
I'm confused too, but I think the real power is that the enormous debt created in buying actual self custodied bitcoin will simultaneously strengthen bitcoin while debasing the dollar because of the new fiat created out of thin air.
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246 sats \ 2 replies \ @SpaceHodler 1 Mar
This effect will become stronger as MSTR's market cap grows and especially once it's bought passively through index funds tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 etc.
The stock attracts a premium over the value of their BTC holdings. They issue more shares, which dilutes the stock, but they buy more BTC with the proceeds and end up with more BTC per share. What TradFi is used to viewing as dilution, ends up being accretive. Hedge funds are also shorting MSTR and hedging it with long BTC positions in the hope of earning risk-free money they see in the erasure of the premium (effectively delta-neutral on BTC + alpha in the premium). But demand exceeds supply, which is pushing the price higher and squeezing the shorts.
I have yet to wrap my head around what happens when BTC dips or enters a bear cycle (if that is ever to happen). There are also stock buybacks, which I don't understand in this context, but those bullish guys on X think it would push it up even higher.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 2 Mar
Yes, its a structural btc pump.
The other part that doesn't get talked about enough is that the prevailing P/E of most mature companies is hovering around 25-35x. This range is enforced by algos, you basically have a bunch of algos that automatically use 30x as a 'floor' for P/E levels
This means if you can grow revenues by $1 - you get $30 of stock value appreciation automatically. So you dilute that and use that to buy more bitcoin.
For any company with revenue, this is basically a cheat code to infinitely inflate stock price.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SpaceHodler 1 Mar
A 2 hour long X Space discussing this: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyjlQZlyKM?s=20
Imagine GME, but as it goes up for whatever reason (inflows of passive money, short squeezes etc.) it locks in the profits from the absurd moves up by buying more BTC. And you end up with GME that can't go down in BTC terms, and you can repeat that ad infinitum.
P.S. No need for zaps, you've zapped me enough!
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