Is a speculative attack on USD coming soon? If it does, it's going to be a crazy sight to see. Every institution that can borrow will and essentially short the dollar by going long Bitcoin. The dollar will begin hyperinflating and there will be a lot of unhappy rent-seekers that will want some blood. It may in the end create calls for a CBDC to control the lending/printing of money, which is currently in the hands of too many banking institutions. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's start from the godfather of the speculative attack: Michael Saylor.
For those with assets, loans are really easy to get. In a fiat economy, loans have no opportunity cost so banking institutions are incentivized to lend as much money as possible to qualified borrowers. More loans, more interest payments, more profit. And the rich borrow. A lot. Loans are how Cantillionaires stay rich. They use the newly printed money to invest in all sorts of stuff and as long as their investment returns higher than the minuscule interest rate from the bank, they come out ahead, sometimes my many multiples.
Using these loans to buy Bitcoin is what we can call a speculative attack on the dollar. That's essentially what Michael Saylor has done with every kind of loan he could get. He's used unsecured loans, secured loans, and stock issuance, among other things, to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. I'm sure he'd take out more loans if he could and I have no doubt in my mind he's looking into more ways to add more to the incredible Bitcoin position he has.
What's going to be even crazier is that he will soon be able to use the Bitcoin itself as collateral. Wall Street isn't that comfortable with this idea yet, but at some point, they're going to because there's too much free money in it for them. And then the real leverage games can begin. He's in deep profit on his Bitcoin position and as the price goes up, there will be more loans available. But at least at the moment, banks aren't loaning out with Bitcoin as collateral just yet.
As such, he has to wait for more stock issuances to buy more Bitcoin. With almost 1% of all BTC in his treasury, there's a lot of demand for his stock and with additional issuances, the market now knows he'll buy more BTC. As a result, he can keep issuing stock and buying Bitcoin this until he's saturated market demand. The result is that MicroStrategy right now trades like a 2x Long Bitcoin ETF.
But here's where it gets fun. What happens when there are more companies besides MicroStrategy that use this strategy? You really just need one more CEO with this level of conviction to take this strategy to the next level. The stock's returns have been so insanely high that some company will mimic it. Heck, even someone that doesn't have a company right now could, perhaps, buy up a small cap stock with some cash on its balance sheet, buy Bitcoin with it and then issue more shares to buy even more Bitcoin. It would be slower, of course, but there's no reason why it won't work. The key is a large cash position and a way to get lots of debt. This hypothetical alternative to MSTR would have to have some differentiation of course, and perhaps they'd use more or less leverage than MSTR.
For that matter, could we see a mining infrastructure company go in this direction? Keep lots of Bitcoin on the balance sheet and use USD loans to mine more. If the treasury is in BTC and the acquisition strategy is mining, then it could very well use its line of credit to become something like MSTR, only a bit more related to energy production.
How about one of these zombie companies? A visionary CEO could turn a zombie company into a living one by making it into a Bitcoin substitute. A company like IBM has lots of assets to get loans with. Use those assets to put Bitcoin on the treasury. It can quickly become another stock that's a store of value. Speaking of which, the reason MSTR is doing so well is because it's taking the store of value premium away from other stocks. Stocks have functioned as a de facto store of value for a long time, the premium is now leaking towards something that holds its value better.
The presence of Bitcoin on the balance sheet turns the store of value premium in these stocks into Bitcoin substitutes. And it really won't take many companies to do these things for the entire market to expand USD and complete the monetization of Bitcoin.
I've spoken to two boomers this week who were pretty happy with themselves for buying MicroStrategy stock over the last year.
I asked each of them why they didn't just buy bitcoin. Their answers both came down to "bitcoin is confusing, and I'm not a techie, it's easier to buy MSTR"
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Who knew boomers were such degens?
As if Bitcoin wasn't fun enough, they have to buy the levered bitcoin proxy.
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Saylor missed being a Boomer by one year! Else he'd probably be king of the Boomber degens.
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1965
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They're feeling pretty good right now.
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Exactly right! I know you don't respond here, but I'm so happy to read this from you. I really believed your anti rent seeking and anti Cantillon principles would prevent you from endorsing this, or even enjoying it. I have been playing this game on a tiny scale myself for the past few years. One thing which is interesting, though I didn't exactly recall his rationale, is that Fred Kreuger believes microstrategy will somehow suffer relative to the ETFs because of its high debt level. His theory doesn't make sense to me, but I think he discusses it here:
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MSTR might suffer in the sense that people who were looking for bitcoin proxies in tradfi will just go straight to the etf now but I think MSTR will benefit from the fact that eventually they will get into the S and P 500 and get the persistent passive bid which will just allow Saylor to issue more shares and buy more bitcoin.
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Also, I guess the ETFs own physical bitcoin without debt, whereas MSTR has lots of debt. Neither MSTR nor the ETF buyers own actual bitcoin, just paper promises subject to a rugpull. But the companies themselves have the real thing, obviously.
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Guess who is the biggest backer of MSTR? Blackrock is the main one pumping money into MSTR. They work together, but not in Bitcoin interest....
When I see so many bitcoiners kissing Saylor ass, it makes me puke...
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I'm no fan of BlackRock, but I didn't know they were involved with Saylor. Is it worth a deal with the devil to destroy the fiat banking system?
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Don't let them fool you with nice words about Bitcoin. Both of them DO NOT WANT to destroy the fiat system. They are big sharks swimming in the vast ocean of fiat... destroying it it will be their death.
What they want is again the same scheme banskters did in the past with gold: give me your gold and I will give you this nice paper IOU.... until people realized that there's no more gold in the vaults.
SAME SCAM over and over and people seems to fall again for it. I am warning everybody: Saylor IS NOT OUR FRIEND. Be aware.
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Appreciate you Darth.
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It's true what you say but they (Blackrock) don't have a lot to say in the matter. People will use Bitcoin more and fiat less and they know it. Fiat will not be gone ( not in a hundred years) but the scale will shift so drastically that we will not recognize it. Saylor is our friend for NOW , it works for both sides, he provides free advertisement and we get BTC more worth (if you think fiat). No one can predict the future. As always, one should use its own brain and be situationally aware. One major thing I agree with is what Jack Dorsey said "You want something to thrive (tech or whatever) Use it!" We should use these sharks do to the heavy lifting, look at the speed how BTC ETF got to 10B, and ask every store you go to if they accept Bitcoin, that's how we win. ... IMHO of course.
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Just don't give them your sats
Jaysus. MSTR starting to look like the ultimate meme stock.
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No fees unlike etf
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Success in this trade means a very different / rough / tumultuous world shifting with extreme volatility disrupting the fabric of a lot of society as we know it. Government, Real estate, banking, surveillance, education, insurance, AI, etc.
This is a very serious trade, do not take that responsibility lightly. This is also why @saylor appears so serious all the time, he understands the gravity of this situation, and he has game theoried the way to the proverbial black hole finish line. The gravity of $MSTR & #BTC will consume everything around it.
I, too, somehow feel MSTR is going to play a role in disrupting the system in tandem with BTC, although it's still a bit over my head.
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I'm confused too, but I think the real power is that the enormous debt created in buying actual self custodied bitcoin will simultaneously strengthen bitcoin while debasing the dollar because of the new fiat created out of thin air.
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This effect will become stronger as MSTR's market cap grows and especially once it's bought passively through index funds tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 etc.
The stock attracts a premium over the value of their BTC holdings. They issue more shares, which dilutes the stock, but they buy more BTC with the proceeds and end up with more BTC per share. What TradFi is used to viewing as dilution, ends up being accretive. Hedge funds are also shorting MSTR and hedging it with long BTC positions in the hope of earning risk-free money they see in the erasure of the premium (effectively delta-neutral on BTC + alpha in the premium). But demand exceeds supply, which is pushing the price higher and squeezing the shorts.
I have yet to wrap my head around what happens when BTC dips or enters a bear cycle (if that is ever to happen). There are also stock buybacks, which I don't understand in this context, but those bullish guys on X think it would push it up even higher.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 2 Mar
Yes, its a structural btc pump.
The other part that doesn't get talked about enough is that the prevailing P/E of most mature companies is hovering around 25-35x. This range is enforced by algos, you basically have a bunch of algos that automatically use 30x as a 'floor' for P/E levels
This means if you can grow revenues by $1 - you get $30 of stock value appreciation automatically. So you dilute that and use that to buy more bitcoin.
For any company with revenue, this is basically a cheat code to infinitely inflate stock price.
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A 2 hour long X Space discussing this: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyjlQZlyKM?s=20
Imagine GME, but as it goes up for whatever reason (inflows of passive money, short squeezes etc.) it locks in the profits from the absurd moves up by buying more BTC. And you end up with GME that can't go down in BTC terms, and you can repeat that ad infinitum.
P.S. No need for zaps, you've zapped me enough!
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Check out @PunterJeff on X. @ryQuant is good too. Jeff thinks MSTR will hit $250k in 2029.
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And I will just laugh of all those idiots that are buying MSTR stocks and not BTC directly.
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If Larry Fink goes on CNBC and says blackrock is out of the Bitcoin business and they dump all the BTC they got to date and the price plummets 80-90% Saylor gets rekt.
Unlikely yea but the possibility of that happened is above zero
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What if I told you that Saylor and Fink are working together? hint: Saylor, as much as (some) bitcoiners want to be one of us ... is NOT one of us.
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101 sats \ 6 replies \ @anon 1 Mar
Who's "us"? You got a mouse in your pocket?
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who are you?
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10 sats \ 4 replies \ @anon 1 Mar
My name's Luke.
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πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
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Leia
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Hilarious
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He did cash out stock to buy Bitcoin personally.
But I agree he's in the business of selling stock for fiat
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Car 1 Mar
So much alpha in here. πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘
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103 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 1 Mar
It isn't just a speculative attack on the USD but also every other currency. The collateral against Billions of valuation of bonds and equities will be in Bitcoin. Fiat system collapse because they are debased. From that perspective an attack on the system is built into the fiat cake. If it not Bitcoin then something else.
The fascinating part is for the first time in history there is opportunity for a smooth(er) transition. The fiat system can just fade slowly away.
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dude speaks alot of sense, for or against, he is just using the bitcoin protocol https://youtu.be/_QN0RcQFf6w
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Is he using the protocol? Does mstr actually hold its keys?
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 2 Mar
Are stacker news and it’s users using the protocol in that sense then?
Keys are for the sovereign individuals of the network. Others will be participating in different ways. No perfect solutions, only trade offs
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TLDR: Bitcoin is rooted in an ideology of natural law, representing scarcity and conservation, with a network built on a solid base for global use.
  • Channeling energy constructively is key to progress, focusing on positive contributions rather than destructive actions.
  • Bitcoin embodies an ideology of natural law over human law, favoring physical sciences and the universe over artificiality.
  • The network is designed with simplicity and efficiency in mind, with a focus on conserving resources and energy.
  • Bitcoin miners act as defenders of the network, investing capital and lobbying for pro-Bitcoin policies globally.
  • Proposals to change the protocol should be approached with caution, considering the network's stability and success.
In a thought-provoking discussion, the speaker delves into the philosophical underpinnings of Bitcoin, emphasizing its roots in natural law and conservation. By likening Bitcoin to a solid base like granite, he highlights the importance of building on a stable foundation for long-term success. The network's design, simplicity, and efficiency are praised, with a call for thoughtful consideration of any changes to the protocol. Ultimately, Bitcoin is portrayed as a dynamic cyber economy that embodies scarcity, conservation, and a commitment to natural law principles.
-made in 20s or less with CASCDR
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I think we will see more companies add BTC to their balance sheet in the next couple years but the Saylor situation is such an outlier that I don't really see many if any replicating what he is doing.
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Reddit files for IPO.
Miners HODL except for wulf
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 1 Mar
Wait till a couple of sovereign wealth funds enters the mix.
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How about one of these zombie companies? A visionary CEO could turn a zombie company into a living one
Corporate necromancy lol.
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saylor simping is a bad look jimmy, be better
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People looking for proxies to holding their keys may start to realize that MSTR NAV (net asset value) is much worse than the ETF. The business side of MSTR is not really growing. All the stock appreciation came from its BTC treasury. I see it more as an inflated ETF than a growth stock. Saylor's strategy was brilliant, but I think it will slow down as people seek a better price above NAV which the ETFs offer.
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You know it's a bull run when the breathless 12 page posts roll in.
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My SIPP likes this post.
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Bitcoin for precedence!
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