31 sats \ 4 replies \ @elvismercury 1 Mar \ on: The Ultimate Purchasing Power of Bitcoin bitcoin
I don't know the answer, but it's a good question, and my favorite thing about it would be if it killed until the end of time the 1 btc = 1 btc thing.
If you don't care what your money will purchase in the world, then you're worshiping money as some kind of religious relic. I don't think the btc-as-fetish-object framing is contributing to its success anymore, and would like to do my part to help it on its way to the shitheap of history.
I don't know the answer
I'm curious if you have any mental projections that you use (could be over any time frame). It should make a big difference in our behavior if the ultimate valuation is actually 1000x our current expectation (as implied by the video I reference).
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I have maybe a meta-answer, which is that when people do the "everything / 21m" calculation, which is technically reasonable, they're ignoring the fact that money is fundamentally a construct in service of social coordination; and that the value of an abstraction is determined, fundamentally, by human psychology.
I asked yesterday if this moment feels like anything. If you woke up tmrw and btc was at $100k, would that feel reasonable, or unreasonable? To me, it's the latter, and I don't think I'm alone. The billionaire looking to allocate capital -- and whose allocation will increasingly drive the price -- would (I propose) look at a $100k price and say: it's a bubble, that's not the right price, I'll wait for it to go down and sit on his hands. So price movement becomes tethered to psychology to a more extreme degree than is the case for other, more concrete, assets.
The result is that I don't think the psychological inputs will admit of some of these lofty valuations people propose on short timescales. Further, I think the various inputs are minimally understood. I think $1m will probably arrive; I don't think it will be before twenty years have passed and a great deal of cognitive underpinnings have become established and distributed. I'd be surprised if we saw $100k before 2026. That's about as calibrated as my feelings get on the matter.
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Interesting. If we do hit 100k before my arms fall off from doing so many pushups, will you reevaluate?
I feel like an implication of your view is that we're going to get to all these exchange rates through fiat devaluation, rather than bitcoin acceptance (at least as the primary driver).
Also, I meant to forward 10% from this post to you. My bad.
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Interesting. If we do hit 100k before my arms fall off from doing so many pushups, will you reevaluate?
You will be so swole, bro, that I will be forced to update my priors.
I feel like an implication of your view is that we're going to get to all these exchange rates through fiat devaluation, rather than bitcoin acceptance.
I think that's right, though I might tweak a bit: if we appreciate in price substantially faster than I'm imagining, it will probably not be real purchasing power so much as fiat catastrophe.
Also, I meant to forward 10% from this post to you. My bad.
That's very kind of you to even imagine doing. Muy amable.
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