LN is largely unusable (from a bitcoin first principles perspective of self-custody)
I'm not a hater, I've used BTC for 10+ years and LN for the last 3 or so. But the complications of using it (and then adding NOSTR into the mix) makes it very difficult to get started, unless you are willing to spend hours researching, setting up nodes, copying complicated URL strings, dealing with multiple overlapping services (LND + LNBITS + ThunderHub, etc), troubleshooting, etc.
There is essentially no chance casual users and businesses will ever adopt it. In the end, LN will likely only be used as an interchange network and/or be used in a custodial setting.
Again I'm not hating, angry, nor wishing ill on the project. I do however think its necessary for bitcoiners to face this reality and stop being deluded.
If you want a chance to see things from fresh eyes. Find a friend and suggest they download alby extension and offer to walk them thru it. I don't mean your grandma....I'm talking about someone who is under 40 and of average technical knowledge. You won't get very far....
If in the future, all we are able to achieve is that LN users utilize it in a custodial way, then that is still a marginal improvement over the current fiat system - but those custodians are still going to be under the pressure from the state and legacy financial system.
At first I wanted to push back on the term "unusable". I agree and disagree. The whole ecosystem is growing so fast that I agree it can be unusable but our hope is boosted by it being unusable in new and better ways than it was unusable 6-8 months ago. Much like the 90's era internet, onboarding new users was filled with hurdles that signaled to many that this was for hobbiest and possibly doomed for use by the masses. (When you mentioned URL strings it reminded me of my cheat sheet for modem init commands I used to maintain)
It is not a bad bet that we end up replicating a lot of the fiat system on top of bitcoin. Not only is it was new users expect... while many of those processes are filled with legacy decisions, many more features are like that because they worked well for what they do. I find myself edging as self deluded when I kick future problems to further out there tools (fediment, etc) I am also expecting so many things that don't look like tools that live in the world today.
At least in the meantime, regardless of tech stack and fee markets we can stack the base asset and buckle up for this ride. I hope helping to build or contribute our little bits along the way.
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Yes, I completely accept the idea that "it works / doesn't work" depending on your perspective.
Downloading Wallet-of-Satoshi and topping it up with sats and using that to buy things certainly "works"....
But from a regulatory perspective (and I hate saying this), but 99% of these things "don't work". Probably even SN (much less WoS) are in violation of money transmitter laws / kyc laws and could probably be shutdown at any time.
This is really what I meant by deluded. We bitcoiners are telling ourselves that "LN works" but what we really mean is "the way we're using LN has escaped regulatory scrutiny thus far".
My heart is on the side of LN self-custody and I really want this to work. But self-custody of LN seems to be very far out of reach. The thing that makes me sad is this is not the case where I have some "if only we could've done ABC"....I think LN was a smart solution (and maybe the best), but I think we need to admit that it doesn't really work.
I increasingly feel we need the "Satoshi of Layer 2" to arrive - meaning that Satoshi came out of the blue with a fresh idea on how to solve the distributed consensus problem that hamstrung ecash / bitgold / etc. He did that not by inventing something new wholecloth, but by cleverly combining existing ideas into a new workflow. I wish this was possible now, because I almost feel we've wasted too much time going down this LN path only to now realize its not really workable.....
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You are right to highlight these downsides. I agree with all those examples. I started doing small meet ups to help onboard some local merchants and the one thing I learn is new people will run headfirst into the pain points right away.
I wonder if we end up with a rolling boil of smaller projects that grow until they get noticed by jurisdictional regulations to be replaced with another one. We have seen that before and are seeing it currently. Stoked to be having these conversations, and also thank you for these thoughtful notes
It feels like there has been a huge surge in mindshare in the BTC L2 space. Hopeful
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But from a regulatory perspective (and I hate saying this), but 99% of these things "don't work"
Lol, regulation has absolutely nothing at all to do with bitcoin. If regulation makes it harder to use bitcoin in your country, your country is the problem, not bitcoin.
Corrupt politicians and overreaching government agencies are something bitcoin can fix, they aren't something that can break bitcoin.
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I disagree with this view entirely. First, we need sidechain to scale Bitcoin. 7 UTXs per second will not cut it. If the tradeoff is a hot wallet for small transactions, that is acceptable. Keep your HODL account in cold storage, and shop with a hot wallet with some pocket change.
Secondly, LN is complex to get on board...today. That does NOT mean it will remain this way. Remember, Bitcoin and LN are protocols. The protocol must work securely. It is not the protocol's job to be "easy". That is UI/UX and app layer's job. Look at other protocols that run the Internet: DNS, SMTP, BGP, HTTPS - which one is "easy"? Did that stop the Internet from becoming what it is? Protocol complexity got pushed into the background and Granny doesn't know what it is or care, but she can browse the web and send email, which is much easier now than in the early days when you had to configure your SLIP/PPP connection and dial up to get online.
Bitcoin was not "easy" to acquire initially. But with exchanges, hot wallets, cold wallets, and even ETFs, Bitcoin can be acquired more easily than ever before. Yes. NYKNYC, I know. Getting back to LN, work remains to be done to secure the protocol, scale it, and apps will come that make it much easier to get started. And at some point, the protocols will fade into the background for plebs and we will see a QR code at your local cafe and granny will pull out her gadget & zap sats to buy her oatmilk skim latté blissfully unaware of all the protocols, including LN, enabling this to happen.
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I guess it depends on your view about the greater "purpose" of Bitcoin. While self-custody is obviously the optimal way to hold bitcoin, I don't believe having the ability to self-custody is the be all and end all of Bitcoins existence. You can already self-custody fiat cash.
Its more about the solid monetary properties.
Bitcoin replaces central banking, not retail banking.
Everyone doesn't need to use bitcoin natively for Bitcoin to fulfill its objectives. Most will use it custodially - even bank with it! And that's perfectly fine.
The most important aspect is that it can't be debased by governments.
(all in my opinion of course)
And i guess to bring it back to your post, that is to say LN works great when those facts are accepted.
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