121 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Jan \ on: Stacker Sports- Day 29 Stacker_Sports
I'm thinking about doing some sort of NBA trade prediction bounty, but I'm not totally sure how to structure it.
My first thought was to solicit predictions for specific trades people are expecting and then give the bounty to whoever was closest. That seems too ambiguous though.
Maybe just having people make a prediction about where a certain player will end up getting traded to is better. Then I can just do like a thousand sats for any correct predictions.
Tough one. Maybe take a certain number of likely trade candidates (5, 8, 10 whatever number you prefer) and have everyone predict where they will go or if they won't get traded at all and the most correct wins?
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I like that. Bill Simmons did some sort of "most likely to be traded" list recently. I'll check to see if that will work. I think he focused on All-Star sort of guys, rather than elite role players.
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Since the likelihood of remaining on their current team is so much higher than ending up on any particular other team, I think I need to make correctly guessing a trade worth more than guessing a non-trade.
As I started writing up the post, I realized that if I were answering it I would just play the odds and predict all the players stay put.
Do you think making correct trade predictions worth 10x non-trade predictions is reasonable? If the list is 10 players and there's one trade, that would make it so someone who predicts that trade wins out over someone who predicts no trades.
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Yes, makes sense. I thought about that after the fact as well.
Alternative would be both are still worth 1 point but you can only use a certain amount of "not traded". If they ony have two or three no trade options to use more thought has to go into where to use them as opposed to just selecting all no trade.
Whatever you think is best.
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I'm thinking that I'll go back to having everyone submit one player and trade destination combo. That way everyone can just share a prediction that they're actually interested in.
However, now I'll do something like 500 sats if the player actually gets traded and 1k if they get traded to the predicted city.
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Just one per person?
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That's what I'm thinking. "Shill me your best trade prediction.", is how some might phrase it.
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You had me at shill.
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