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283 sats \ 2 replies \ @faithandcredit 31 Dec 2023 \ parent \ on: What are the biggest questions of 2024? oracle
It means the US must cut spending 30% or more which is the portion of the budget that is financed by debt. The dollar will probably soar short term in that case and markets and assets will deflate and likely stay deflated even when inflation picks back up.
Why? Because the judges, the congress, the military, the police, you name it will still be in place. So nothing will actually change. They will double down on stupidity and make even worse economic policies and borrow, print and spend even harder after a while. So the beginning of the end if anything. But lets see.
Fair. I just meant it's the end of this particular debt story.
Conventional wisdom is that a US default would have the opposite effect on the dollar, since the whole "full faith and credit" thing would be severely devalued and US Treasuries would no longer be treated as "risk free" assets.
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Your are not wrong. However, there is no great alternative to the dollar, so it will still be the safe haven asset for most people. Hard to explain i guess, But lets see.
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