69 sats \ 2 replies \ @Majjin 16 Jun 2022 \ parent \ on: How is this recession going to play out? bitcoin
The only issue I have with your prediction is the invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan is not likely to be invaded anytime soon. China likes to saber rattle about Taiwan, but in reality an invasion will take D-Day levels of forces and coordination.
I think that the CCP is playing the long con. They'll subvert Taiwan and subtly control it behind the scenes. Taiwan will remain "free" for quite a while so that the CCP can continue its propaganda. Eventually, I think Taiwan will become politically and culturally compromised to the point where they will willingly join with the mainland. This may take like 30 to 40 years, IMO. Once that happens, China can begin a new propaganda campaign about the glorious reunification and victory of the CCP.
I certainly hope they fail miserably.
You're probably right - propaganda is more effective but takes a long duration.
Political subversion was tried with Ukraine throughout the years (recall Trump fiasco) and, when Russia failed to replace leadership, Russia simply invaded. It's possible the same happens in Taiwan. But I think we both agree that the endgame for Taiwan is that they end up as part of China.
reply
Yeah I can see an all out invasion as a desperate last resort if propaganda doesn't work. I think that if they do try an invasion, they're just going to get themselves into a quagmire at best. America needs to kick its dependence on Chinese imports before something like that happens. Otherwise, we'll be experiencing shortages that make the ones happening now look like an utter luxury.
reply