1534 sats \ 5 replies \ @dk 6 Dec 2023 \ on: Manifold | The largest prediction market platform oracle
I was thinking a prediction market might be a fun territory. Tough to run a proper order book on SN, but prob could figure out bid/ask spreads in conversation and bootstrap a liquidity/fun. If you want to make it, I'll join! 🙋♂️
An SN bot that comments on user comments could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The OP could be the prediction topic, then users can reply "!bet 100 sats 50% yes" then subcomment, wait for user to fund the bot, then wait for another user to subcomment taking the other position, etc.
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this is a good idea!
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I think I could work on something like this at some point :)
But really need to shift priorities to other stuff at the moment...
But what @TonyGiorgio has written sounds simple enough for a "bot MVP" ... Shouldn't take too long right? Right? haha. It's "just" missing market settlement!
And this territory here is supposed to be the one for prediction markets! :)
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You could also tag and elect an SN user as the Oracle (either in OP, or the OP) to comment the end results and then the bot does the settlement.
Though highly illegal and surely @k00b takes on a lot of risk and may have to shut it down.
Unless he never has custody of the funds or it's through a 3rd party federation.
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Though highly illegal and surely @k00b takes on a lot of risk and may have to shut it down. Unless he never has custody of the funds or it's through a 3rd party federation.
Yeah, that's the part I'm never sure if even mentioning it already has potential downsides in the future, hehe 😅
I should really stop getting SN into seriously more trouble than it might already be in, lol
Also part of the reason why DM (delphi.market) is a separate project; "not associated with SN in any way". Except through me.