I think it's more of a 50:50. I can reduce the bet to 1k for both sides though.

Agreed it's a big drop. On the other hand, such a drop isn't unusual for exchange tokens (see FTX, CEL).

My base case, aside from the recent news, is that the ETF gang has an incentive to help cut Binance down. SEC has repeatedly cited market manipulation and exchange risk as a reason for rejecting ETF applications. And if ETF approval indeed occurs around Jan 2024, we could expect to see something big happen to Binance between now and Christmas.

I could be wrong, but decided to put my money where my mouth is. It's more fun that way!

BTW, does SN have an equivalent to the Reddit !remindme bot?