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441 sats \ 17 replies \ @HardMoney 17 Nov 2023 \ parent \ on: Stacker Sports - Meta Meta Takeover Takeover - Degenerate Corner meta

Stacker should build some P2P betting tooling that meets the degen need to wager microsats

Could potentially invite some unwanted attention from govt but it would be great to have btc betting / fantasy football / etc with P2P pools…even if oracles used for payout was just espn

Cc @koob

461 sats \ 16 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

It's something that's been discussed. I've worked with @ekzyis a bit on potential models with the intention of applying it to prediction markets more broadly.

441 sats \ 15 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023 freebie

yes, i was very bad at time management the past weeks or months.

i hope this gets better now and i think i can get a first MVP of delphi.market out this month - fingers crossed.

(had to rewrite a lot of code since i realized, i can't just wing the frontend using raw HTML and CSS, lol. I am using Vue 3 now.)

461 sats \ 13 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

Awesome!

We'll keep cultivating demand amongst the degenerates in the meantime.

260 sats \ 12 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023 freebie

it's going to be binary markets only at first however

so literally just "Will X happen?" and you can buy YES or NO shares.

If you want to buy YES shares, someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares. The price only differs. So if I think X is going to happen with a chance of 90%, I would buy YES shares for 90 sats each since I'll get 100 sats per share on expiry if I win. So a profit of 10 sats per share.

This means someone else needs to buy the same number of NO shares but for a price of 10 sats each. They'll win 90 sats per share.

A market evolves since you'll be able to sell your shares to others (at a different price you bought them). So you could sell X of your YES shares to someone else at 95 sats per share and exit the market with a profit of 5 sats per share before the market concludes.

If I did the math right, the market should stay solvent in any of such cases.

I also intend to use HODL invoices for these trades. So your sats for buying shares will only be sent if there is actually a counterparty available.

Also, I'll hold the funds. So it's going to be fully custodial. I'll ship on regtest first until I am super sure there are no bugs - at least no critical ones.

150 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 17 Nov 2023

Looking forward to it

How do events get originated?

250 sats \ 10 replies \ @ek 17 Nov 2023

Oh, great question, forgot to mention some things around that: You can simply create ones but I'm wondering if they should be approved by me first since if two parties can't agree on the outcome of the event, I'll have to step in as arbiter of truth. If the event is not easily verifiable, it's going to be hard.

I'm also thinking about requiring a bond which the party will lose that I decided has lost if the parties don't achieve consensus. So there is incentive to be honest since hopefully, I'll be able to tell who is the real winner easily anyway.