I'm also a believer in ATH before the Halving, and agree that the 4 year cycle is just correlation with macro liquidity. BUT...

I'm not a believer in the secular crypto bull that ends in a 5th wave in '24 and a prolonged bear market would settle in. I will present my whole case in this thread and explain why leaving the crypto sphere next year would be the greatest mistake of your life.

All over Twitter it's been said that high rates and high inflation environment is bad for assets. That's almost 100% wrong, with maybe some small windows when rates are raised and market has dips.

I'm watching the 54y cycle for inflation, and the start of QE (which is just a narrative) was after the last 54y cycle ended (2006).

We are actually in similar economy as in 1921 to 1929 Roaring Twenties

So the rates would have higher highs and higher lows this decade, and inflation would be sticky - that's very bullish for risk on assets, because the FED doesn't control anything, they participate in the market like everyone else.

Warren Buffet '70s: In a high inflation environment, the best things to own [...] is 'companies'

This new class of assets is just at the begining, with a 1.2 trillion $ market cap, and reaching 6 trillion $ it shouldn't be compared with the DOT COM that reached a similar mkt cap before entering a prolonged bear market.

Different cycles (rates and inflation were coming down from the '80s to 2006), M2 money supply was 5x lower back then. Want a crypto bubble? Let's talk 40 trillion $ market cap and maybe..

Talking about Bitcoin's bubble pop makes no sense to me. Bitcoin is the opposite of a bubble, it's more like the pin that pops bubbles (TERRA, CELSIUS, FTX etc.) - soon the FIAT bubble.

First of all, Bitcoin is a mathematical black hole for every other premium of every other asset in the world, not just for new printed dollars - which next year should be a MONSTROUS amount - because US GOVT would have to back all the deposits

As investors lose interest in bonds, they will raise rates this decade, and also yields to keep them in the system.

But again, in a high, sticky inflation environment, the only way to beat the hurdle rate is to go risk on!

Since 2020, institutional investors entered the game, causing an inflection point in available supply on exchanges. Saylor has been the first to adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy while everyone called him crazy.

Available supply will continue to drop, institutionals will keep using Bitcoin as treasuries - companies, corporations, pension funds, ETFs, 401k's etc.

The institutions have not entered the market to pump our bags, they came to shake us off!

Pleb money manage to get this asset from 3 bil $ (2014) to 278 bil $ (2017), imagine when big money starts to play in the game theory, and you left in '24 at ATH because a prolonged bear market comes after.

Actually what comes after is the new S-Curve

We are at the inflection point and everyone who is paperhanding Bitcoin, will be left with hyperinflation.

Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, and imagine how much liquidity we will have after they have to back 18 trillion $ deposits (for starters).

What do you buy when you have excess currency? Scarce shit! What do you buy when you want a flight to safety? More scarce shit!

1921 Depression, '70s stagflation, 2008 Deflation - Gold went parabolic.

Because it was scarce? Yes and No. As in the Dewey and Dakin 54y model, it was predictable, it was more like a constant in an increasingly variable world.

Its stock to flow was kinda predictible. So even if a big bust is coming to markets, as deflation (remember we are in a high inflation environment), smart people will choose the most predictible flight to safety.

Smart money always prepare for recessions in advance!

Is it a coincidence that smart money applied for BTC spot ETF now, in advance of a possible deflation?

The chart with the 'prolonged' bear market, I think it will be every other asset in the world expressed in BTC, including cryptos.

So no, I don't think BTC will have that, on the contrary, in the future BTC price will be 'ineffable' - hard to express in curencies. We would express dollars in sats because it will be very hard to comprehend BTC's price.

Inflection point has started 3 years ago, from pleb to institutional, and the money printing will be wild and will fuel not just a bigger bull market, but a later deflationary bust - question is, what's your flight to safety?