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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 24 Sep 2023 \ parent \ on: Germany: Example Of De-Industrialization bitcoin
Germany lost 133 bio. Euros of direct investment. Only in 2022. These companies won't come back.
But new companies will come online. And the surviving companies will fight to expand if they're worth anything. Including the new major green steel foundry (can't remember the name) which got some $2+ billion in funding.
Iceland leads the charge with almost 90% of their energy coming from green sources (mostly geothermal). They don't even have many natural resources, but can import raw materials and do the smelting, melting, and fabricating with their enormous green energy overabundance. The recently built GERD damn in Ethiopia will supply 85% of the country's entire electrical needs and lift half the population out of extreme poverty. As for Germany, almost 50% of their entire energy demand came from green energy last year. And that's without any energy storage technologies! What percentage decline have we seen in their industrial output? Nothing outside the ordinary and none to do with renewable intermittency. DEMAND is the key word there. They don't want to rely on the variable prices and logistics beholden to geo-politics of fossil fuels. They want decentralized forms of energy, with infrastructure they can manufacture domestically. Why would they want to rely on the benevolence of American LNG, the temperament of Russia, or dictatorships of the Middle-East?
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You can't compare Germany's energy market design with Iceland that's rich of geothermal energy and running a small industrial sector. Germany only can make a comeback with nuclear power. The rest is green folklore. The green Walhalla will be a poor nation (which is in progress with a deep recession). Don't be fooled by gov propaganda. Businesses are fleeing the country as I showed You.
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Nuclear? That's a Twitter thing. Why would you want to pay $30B for a single gigawatt of energy that takes 5 years to build (assuming no lawsuits), and requires many hundreds of workers to maintain? That's to say nothing of robust security monitoring, disposal, and fuel sourcing. You might as well buy nuclear energy from France at a premium.
I'm not fooled, I just follow the money and data. Green and decentralized forms of energy are less an ideology and more an economic reality.
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Ok. We disagree on that. Time will tell...
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I'm going to green pill you eventually TomK. Count on it. I don't see a bitcoin standard ever happening without cheap/free forms of decentralized energy with a semi-global power grid using high-trans DC lines (kind of in the works), and scaled energy storage. Until then bitcoin is a chess piece playing on a checkers board. Going to make a video on it. Will be happy to read your criticism of the detailed thesis.
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Open to anything, friend.
Greets and thanks for the debate and Your insights!
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