That's what De-Industrialization in Germany really looks like: Vallourec's Düsseldorf plant forges its last steel tube! Mülheim plant already shut down earlier this month. The green agenda distroys the core industry of Europe.
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0 sats \ 8 replies \ @mallardshead 24 Sep 2023
In USD terms, Germany's Industrial production is close to its all-time-high. And as a % of GDP, its industrial production is falling modestly, but that's been happening since the early 90s.
The green agenda has little to do with German steel and is probably helping it considerably with the billions in subsidies they've recently gotten. The issue is demand for steel. It's collapsed, along with China's industrial sector, uncertainty around the war, and Turkish imports with the Lira's decline. If the Ukraine war has a visible end German steel will soar.
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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @TomK OP 24 Sep 2023
Sorry, but Your analysis is completely the opposite of reality. The green agenda leads to a collapse of industrial production. Watch the last data - energy intensive production is falling like a rock. The relative price of energy is the key factor of manufacturing. And renewables are pushing the price as of the market design higher and higher. Please do a research on german manufacturing and You'll be surprised.
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 24 Sep 2023
Germany lost 133 bio. Euros of direct investment. Only in 2022. These companies won't come back.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @mallardshead 24 Sep 2023
But new companies will come online. And the surviving companies will fight to expand if they're worth anything. Including the new major green steel foundry (can't remember the name) which got some $2+ billion in funding.
Iceland leads the charge with almost 90% of their energy coming from green sources (mostly geothermal). They don't even have many natural resources, but can import raw materials and do the smelting, melting, and fabricating with their enormous green energy overabundance. The recently built GERD damn in Ethiopia will supply 85% of the country's entire electrical needs and lift half the population out of extreme poverty. As for Germany, almost 50% of their entire energy demand came from green energy last year. And that's without any energy storage technologies! What percentage decline have we seen in their industrial output? Nothing outside the ordinary and none to do with renewable intermittency. DEMAND is the key word there. They don't want to rely on the variable prices and logistics beholden to geo-politics of fossil fuels. They want decentralized forms of energy, with infrastructure they can manufacture domestically. Why would they want to rely on the benevolence of American LNG, the temperament of Russia, or dictatorships of the Middle-East?
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 24 Sep 2023
You can't compare Germany's energy market design with Iceland that's rich of geothermal energy and running a small industrial sector. Germany only can make a comeback with nuclear power. The rest is green folklore. The green Walhalla will be a poor nation (which is in progress with a deep recession). Don't be fooled by gov propaganda. Businesses are fleeing the country as I showed You.
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @mallardshead 24 Sep 2023
Nuclear? That's a Twitter thing. Why would you want to pay $30B for a single gigawatt of energy that takes 5 years to build (assuming no lawsuits), and requires many hundreds of workers to maintain? That's to say nothing of robust security monitoring, disposal, and fuel sourcing. You might as well buy nuclear energy from France at a premium.
I'm not fooled, I just follow the money and data. Green and decentralized forms of energy are less an ideology and more an economic reality.
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100 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 24 Sep 2023
Ok. We disagree on that. Time will tell...
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @mallardshead 24 Sep 2023
I'm going to green pill you eventually TomK. Count on it. I don't see a bitcoin standard ever happening without cheap/free forms of decentralized energy with a semi-global power grid using high-trans DC lines (kind of in the works), and scaled energy storage. Until then bitcoin is a chess piece playing on a checkers board. Going to make a video on it. Will be happy to read your criticism of the detailed thesis.
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