Russia thought they had the grand plan of holding Europe's economy hostage via energy. It failed. Oil and natgas are cheaper than they were before the war started, which is terrible for Russia, with the double-whammy that now Russia's biggest enemy (the US) is selling energy to its allies for more money than Russia was. What's crazier is that the US defense budget has been falling for years.

When you create any significant disruption, incentives to find a way around them start building, and Europe isn't a third world country with third world allies. Russia has foolishly sped up their energy transition by many years. Russia had a great thing going. It doesn't mater what commodities Russia has, what matters is they continue pulling these resources for directionally cheaper prices, and have the logistics to deliver them. Their demographics and cost of capital were disastrous before the war started. And the equipment and technology for most of their industry aren't things they produce, which is why we've even seen them steal tractors from rural farmers in the United Kingdom. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and have hyper-inflated. If Putin isn't replaced, and the country isn't opened for investment, Russia's Ruble will hyper-inflate. The country will implode. Their resources and power vacuum will be fought over. They'll become a subsidiary of China or destabilized enough that someone has to secure their nukes.