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I think You hit the point: energy as colareral of future currency systems. And now ask Yourself if we know that 6 of the 9 largest oil and gas producing nations belong to the BRICS+: How can Europe for example defend its econ model? And what happens to the EU's and US' debt that spiraling like never before?
''Russia will go hyper-inflationary and implode this decade.'' - never gonna happen. Russia is the commodity hub of the world with just 25% debt/GDP.
To me their will be more than just a shift. It's redifining geopolitics.
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Russia thought they had the grand plan of holding Europe's economy hostage via energy. It failed. Oil and natgas are cheaper than they were before the war started, which is terrible for Russia, with the double-whammy that now Russia's biggest enemy (the US) is selling energy to its allies for more money than Russia was. What's crazier is that the US defense budget has been falling for years.
When you create any significant disruption, incentives to find a way around them start building, and Europe isn't a third world country with third world allies. Russia has foolishly sped up their energy transition by many years. Russia had a great thing going. It doesn't mater what commodities Russia has, what matters is they continue pulling these resources for directionally cheaper prices, and have the logistics to deliver them. Their demographics and cost of capital were disastrous before the war started. And the equipment and technology for most of their industry aren't things they produce, which is why we've even seen them steal tractors from rural farmers in the United Kingdom. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and have hyper-inflated. If Putin isn't replaced, and the country isn't opened for investment, Russia's Ruble will hyper-inflate. The country will implode. Their resources and power vacuum will be fought over. They'll become a subsidiary of China or destabilized enough that someone has to secure their nukes.
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Well, I take exactly the opposite site. Russia has clearly escaped from the sanction-shock and is integrating economically in the new trading space. Europe is clearly in fast decline. To me the US are in a better position than Europe but the USD (and its derivatives like T-Bills) is losing continually (still dominant, I know) it's role as reserve asset and trade vehicle. A demogr. collapsing China could be the factor that will be tearing down this construct in the future. But Russia as no. 1 commodity producer in the world brings the biggest stash of collateral to the table. That's why England tried to crush it over centuries...
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Ok touché, the last part especially. My final argument then we'll have to agree to disagree.
Lot's of smart money view Ukraine as an opportunity like the rebuild of Japan from 1945-1952; where it rapidly afterwards became the world's second largest economy, even after most cities were firebombed to ash, and there was a double nuking event. The ReBuild Ukraine conference in Poland earlier this year was so well-attended (by the well-to-do), that they're doing another one this November. And Ukraine bonds have been one of the hottest investments for awhile now:
The design pattern of the war the US has put on Russia is nasty from what I've observed and concluded, which is this:
The US has a falling military budget. And for a drop in the bucket of that budget, they get to dramatically weaken an enemy, while selling energy to allies for more money than our enemy did, while putting a resource rich country (Ukraine) in debt, and losing no men. It's the smartest war ever fought.
It's really the MASSIVE natural resources of Ukraine that are most interesting, especially to Russia, who will lose what they've sampled heretofore.
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With respect to Ukraine: my impression is that Ukraine ( with Nato in the back) is being grinded by the well-established russian defense line. There is a recruiting problem and first nato members are trying to find a way out of this. Today Italy commented via its former PM Conte that ''Nato strategy is failing'' and sanctions are back-firing to the Europeans. Russia won't leave Crimea or Donbass, that's over. And I think Putin is bleeding the Zelensky regime out to negotiate with another group of representatives on the future of the country, nato presence and the exploitation of the massive gas fields in the black sea (which is all about in my opinion). Let's see how it's playing out. Winter is coming...
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Here You can see the slow but steady decline of the USD in its role as a reserve currency. Bad graphic by putting the chinese shitcoin with another scale into, but ignore this for our purpose: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek/status/1695626791782650011?t=lWvfJ3qSP3FtFKzTDXwtFA&s=19
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BRICS: vaporware.