History shows that when empires become so large that the military expenditures to maintain them begin to outweigh the resources the empire can plunder, the empire begins to collapse and shrink.
reply
Don't expect BRICS or any widely-used competing political currency to be a success for at least the next 5 years.
The relative outperformance of other widely-held currencies is not typically seen until after a war ends, and a "winner" is decided. That is when the "loser" takes the hit in purchasing powder. Until then countries will do their utmost to support their currencies against one another. We're likely still in that stage.
Here is the pound's purchasing power (as the reserve currency) against the dollar (1939-1945 was WWII):
reply
Its a nice narrative (war ends an empire currency) but its faulty. There were a number of other wars prior to ww2 almost regularly every 30 years, so what made ww2 different? It wasnt a war that ended pounds dominance, it was the relative advantage the us had in manufacturing and access to resources . that's what was built in ww2 that killed the pound. People wanted usd to buy us goods. Us had a relative advantage that gave it the upper hand.
Think of it this way, why would the pound drip because of a war when the uk won? That's not what made it drop.
There may be a war to defend the us, but that's not the reason the us is losing dominance.
reply
I agree with your analysis. However my point is that the relative outperformance or largest devaluation only happens once a war has concluded and all parties are aligned on who gets to define and how to define the new monetary standard for the next ~30 years.
Speculating that the BRICS alliance is going to eat into the dollar's prominence as early as next year is very far-fetched IMO. Especially when the currency doesn't even exist as of today. Not to mention the fact the vast majority of worldwide debt remains denominated in dollars, thereby retaining demand for it.
reply
See I'm in agreement, but does the USD have 100 years, people always ask when is the USD going to crash or be debased.
Simply It's happening in front of us piece by piece, taking into account the geo political issues.
reply
Ecofin platform would be the place to talk about all finance, but its not nostr though. I use to go to other places like Matrix, Duscord, and reddit.
reply
whats Ecofin and matrix like, do you rate them higher than lets say for example twitter and reddit?
reply
Your probably right thou matrix has the decentralised element
reply
Yeah Matrix is better when comparing those platforms. Hope to see one much like nostr. I only mentioned Ecofin because the financial community was really big when I last used it.
reply
If it works, the demand for US Dollar might fall. This may trigger the fall of the US Dollar.
But, I don't think will work. There are simply too many differences between BRIC participants especially the new wannabes.
reply
So are we saying that a Token created by Argentinians, Brazilians, Egyptians, Ethiopians and Arabs will undermine the power of the dollar?
reply
Why not including China and Russia?
reply
China could be the only one who can have the remote chance of change the world mindset about a global currency, but still, even their country neighbour don't trust them.
Russia its another no no.
reply
BRICS+ includes China and Russia, I don't see an immediate change in short term but long term will.
reply
They have to prove that they are not going to devalue their currency for several decades.
The Euro had similar hopes long time ago and as we all know, it failed.
reply
No idea what it means for dollar but most people in the world that want to live in freedom and work?in fair economy will chose US every second of their life. All of BRICS countries are maybe nice for short and cheap holiday but you want your ass away once you pass the hangover.
reply
Cool people, thanks for the input.
reply
Those sanctions are working so well ...
reply
There is always a change in power after every century. Looks like US has reached it's maximum.
Even E.U tried to make an impact but most of their union countries defaulted one by one.
I would expect China or other asian countries that might lead another 100 years.
reply