Interested to see everyone's take on why Shanghai is in a total lockdown?
  1. Saving Face Theory: The Chinese gov't has a zero Covid policy. Outbreaks in Shanghai show they can't control the virus and thus will lose "face" and reveal how ineffective the CCP actually is.
  2. Wuhan Lab Theory: Covid was accidentally leaked from the Wuhan lab and the Chinese know something we don't about long term destructive effects of the virus thus the harsh lockdown.
  3. Destroy USD Theory: Use the cover of Covid, to close ports creating more supply chain issues thus crashing the USD with more inflation and political unrest.
Which of the above 3 do ya'll think is the most realistic reason for locking down 30million people?
Are there other theories ?
Seems pretty clearly 1.
  1. They may have had more information in March 2020 but at this point it's unlikely they know more than us given we've had 2 years of experience dealing with millions of infections while they were set on zero-COVID policy.
  2. Torturing your own people seems like a pretty passive aggressive way to destroy the USD.
Unfortunately while zero COVID was attainable with decent success for the better part of 2 years, Omicron is an order of magnitude more transmissible. China convinced their people that this was a winning strategy and are now unwilling to pivot. Sadly this drove vaccine reluctance amongst their most vulnerable, elderly population. Omicron is now free to run wild through an immune naive population.
New Zealand wisely abandoned this policy after getting a significant portion of their elderly population vaccinated.
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Sadly this drove vaccine reluctance amongst their most vulnerable, elderly population.
Just a reminder that their elderly are the only generation with memories of the Cultural Revolution.
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To me I look at lockdowns as their only method to taper commodity and consumer price inflation, it's a version of jawboning a rate hike or actually raising interest rates
China has a major shortage of energy and water along with a few other broken supply chains slowing down manufacturing so I see it as a way to delay hoping to keep people from spending and using more energy
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This is my favorite Channel for Chinese news: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay6PqrrPI_o
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Wild. I had never even heard of them before, and now this is the third video from their channels that I've seen in the past week.
đź“ş How to Get Your Money Out of China | China Unscripted #19365
Same media organization as your video, but a different channel (mine on "China Unscripted", yours on "China Uncensored").
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Yeah, I think the one I sent is the oldest. Been watching him for years now. He's got an America Uncovered channel, as well.(not sure if I got the name right) I used to teach English to Chinese and his channel was the only place I could find any information about what was really going on over there.
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china is not as smart as you think and believe this is the correct way to deal with a virus similar to SARS
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I’m starting to believe this is a likely reason.
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It's definitely a variant of the 'saving face' theory 1). Here are several factors that play in:
  1. China's urban areas are the highest density human populations on the planet. In particular in Guangdong and on the east coast.
  2. The SARS epidemic was very traumatic in some pockets. It was like a much shorter but more potent health scare with similar effects. A bit related to the above.
  3. China's government is sometimes perceived as uber-efficient and effective in the West. That's only half-true, at very best. It can also be comically ineffective; so much of what bureaucrats do is to satisfy what their superiors seem to demand; so often what is actually required is extremely obtuse. There are communication problems because speech is not free, even at the deep level (what a middle manager can say to a boss; what a local party official can say to a high ranking CCP member). Lack of that flow of information leads to really bad outcomes, often.
  4. Xi Jinping is really very authoritarian, and seems from what I can tell to have very rigid ideas about things. Once he had decided what his COVID19 policy was, you can imagine (see 3) how hard it would be to change it. (The CCP, anyway, is all about top-down control, it's like its DNA .. to a hammer everything is a nail; a biological disease in the society is treated like a mind-disease (people having 'wrongthink') - stamped out with extreme prejudice. Unfortunately this is a ridiculously impractical idea, but see the previous point).
  5. Don't underestimate how stupid humans are in groups :)
Re: 2) sure it could well be from that lab, I'd say far more likely than not at this stage, but no way there's some hidden effect (just my guess of course).
Re: 3) Can't see that being even a little bit plausible tbh
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Depopulation theory.
Miles Guo states that Xi's strategy is to starve out and have 1 in 2500 people in Shanghai die. I think the COVID is a cover up strategy.
Long Thread that hints at ' starvation ' history: https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1512734595485106179
Some additional facts to ponder:
For one, China has a demographic time bomb going on. If they don't start figuring out how to reduce population soon, they will have hoards of old people and a small young population.
Second, there were massive floods in the last year, likely that damaged a lot of crops they had locally, leading them to increase their Ag imports from the US in the FY 2021 year to a record level, see link below.
Third, China depends a lot on US Agriculture exports for food to sustain their population, about 36 Billion dollars was exported in the last year, as the largest importing trade partner - see https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-u-s-trade/u-s-agricultural-trade/outlook-for-u-s-agricultural-trade/
My suspicion, given China's polluted environment is that they don't have the capability to be self sustaining in food production and want to decouple themselves from the west, the only way is to 'off' some of the population down to manageable numbers. this has happened before in history, have plenty of friends and family who tell stories of this.
I realize that this is all a bit 'conspiracy' theory and does not follow MSM, please don't censor me here. If you like what I posted, let me know. :)
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Miles Guo has some interesting things to say, unfortunately I'm fairly sure a large chunk of absolute nonsense is mixed in. And given how dark and impenetrable the CCP is, it's difficult to distinguish the two.
That RealSexyCyborg thread started really well, things people need to understand about Chinese consciousness, but then went completely off the rails with '5 million will die from COVID if it gets out' - this is basically rubbish, omicron is laughably weak and will kill exactly no one who isn't already quite close to death. Her complete lack of judgement about this is kinda shocking, presumably she spends far too much time on twatter.
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I like what you posted. Thanks for sharing.
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This is not even close to a meaningful reduction in population to warrant the economic hit here.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
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Interesting take. I never considered depopulation as a reason but it’s a possibility
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I think everything is a financial cover-up. Somehow this ties back to a crumbling reserve asset, and supply chain failures. I don’t have any specific evidence, I just don’t believe the CCP are this big of germaphobes or have the health/wellness of their people in their mind.
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You are very prescient! This is looking like the most likely scenario.
[...] china is locking down cities as test runs for economic collapse.
[...] they are using covid as a test for what happens when cities have zero economic activity as quiet war game events.
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There are several possibilities that I think are worth exploring.
Germ Freaks This virus may genuinely terrify the ruling class atop the CCP.
It’s a psyop The short term hard lockdowns in Wuhan in early 2020 were falsely advertised as an astonishing scientific success, but were most effective as an information operation to shut down the world, while seeding the idea that lockdowns would help to crush the virus.
National Hubris/Believing their own press Every country modeled their lockdowns, a novel concept that did not exist prior to 2020, after the Wuhan lockdown. This level of admiration may have acted to affirm China’s well-known, baked in superiority complex, and convince the Communist Party that it alone has the technocratic authoritarian capacity to wage a successful war on a virus.
Internal politics There remains tremendous infighting in the ranks of the Communist Party. Shanghai is perceived as one of the more “liberal” cities in China, and the lockdowns may have been motivated by competing political factions desperate to win over influence and power.
What is motivating the CCP's Shanghai lockdown? https://dossier.substack.com/p/what-is-motivating-the-ccps-shanghai
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None of those alone seem to explain what we are seeing.
But it is completely dysfunctional no matter what the reason.
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Great reply! As engineers we seek logical conclusions, unfortunately human behavior is very illogical.
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Here are some other theories:
  1. The Shanghai lockdown keeps the idea of virus containment alive.
  2. The Shanghai lockdown reassures western trading partners that China is as dumb as they are.
  3. The Shanghai lockdown is useful political theatre to the CCP, further binding China’s population to the Party.
A hardline communist like Xi Jinping, who spent time in a forced labor camp as a youth, isn’t about to lose sleep over some bankers in Shanghai missing a few meals. On the contrary, China’s top leaders are more inclined to see the lockdown as character building; a lesson to the rich kids that sacrifice to the Party comes first, and a reminder to the people all across China that they really are all in this together.
Does the Shanghai Lockdown Absolve the Chinese Communist Party? https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/does-the-shanghai-lockdown-absolve
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Really like your #3 theory: Lockdown is useful political theatre to the CCP.
This might apply to the US as well. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
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China: It's for your health
[Video]
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We all personally believe that we are not susceptible to propaganda, but China is evidence that this is simply not true.
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If that was propaganda (versus an actual capture by a witness who leaked it online), ... what would be the reason to fabricate that?
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Exactly! what motive would CCp have for leaking propaganda? Interesting that our MSM barely mentions these lockdowns.
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Possibly there is some CCP internal rift here.
Maybe it's like when in the U.S. a President might have some ability to cut off Federal funding for a specific state, using a "legit" justification but underneath the real reasons might to punish the leaders of that state for their opposition or for some other reason.
I don't know shit about fuck but maybe it is something like Beijing wanted to nail Shanghai leaders for something but their actions against them might not work politically, so instead they lock down the city for "zero covid", forcing economic harm on those they wanted to harm (e.g., large property owners whose tenants will now not be able to afford to pay rent).
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The State Department said the order is an upgrade from the “authorized” departure issued last week that made the decision voluntary.
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Shanghai is the rebellious city. So what do you do? Use “Covid” to “shut them up”- literally & figuratively.
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There are no coincidences.
Shanghai accounted for 29% of yuan trading by banks for their clients in February, more than any other region in China.
Yuan Trading Dries Up As Shanghai Lockdown Drags On https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yuan-trading-dries-shanghai-lockdown-drags
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Vector vaccines aren't as effective as mRNA. And china can't produce neither accept mRNA vaccines.
Omicron make zero covid useless.
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It is 1. Occam's razo.
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One theory: they’re just fucking stoopid. And it presents a great opportunity to rough out the citizens, thus they will learn to comply even better. -Alvar
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Don't mistake the lab leak for the successful attempt to straw man the lab leak into the "it came from" and "it was designed in" a lab conspiracy theory, which is then more easily attacked and discredited than the truth.
"Gain of functionality" research isn't designing and just because it leaked from the lab doesn't mean they know anything about it.
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I think it's mostly 1 with a side of 3. Nothing Pooh bear does is straightforward.
It's clearly not #2 though since it's now proven that Fauci was behind the gain of function research going on in Wuhan's lab.