Due to higher fees, it will push more people to lightning, more lightning usage and services allow more people to use Bitcoin, more people in Bitcoin get more people into Bitcoin pushing further and further adoption..
adoption of what?
a guy on Africa who pays 10$ for a transaction is not going to adopt bitcoin.
An idiot who buys a jpeg for 10$ yes.
the question is, what we want?
Adoption of the lightning network. I would like to take this time to remind everyone of all the mocking of the lightning network as having fees that are too high. No, rather on-chain to LN swap because on-chain is too cheap to bother with a proper lightning wallet.
On the other hand, fuck custodians. If using a custodian were an acceptable solution, we'd be using something inconvenient like gold or something. There are many improvements to the lightning network coming down the pipe that will make using a custodian sound silly.
everyone knows here that the LN is the solution.
And of course is better to use a custodial wallet for a beginner who manage small amounts that paying 10$ fee.
In fact I guess having high fees is good to try to kill this nonsense.
how you imagine your success rate with newbies proposing them right now $10-20 fee for non-custodial LN wallet, when e.g. starting with WalletOfSatoshi is free of charge - and for them the functionally is simply the same
option 1:
"start with free of charge LN wallet, and migrate to non-custodial version when on-chain fees are back to acceptable"
option 2:
force them to $10-20 starting fee just to keep away from custodians (but don't cry there is no LN adoption)
If I would start now taking payments, I think is better to start accepting LN in a custodial wallet and after I put together 200 or 300$, I would send that to my hodl wallet (non custodial on chain) or I would open my first channel on a easy wallet like phoenix or breez.
so, the more important is that Lightning Network "gates" are broadly open
like Binance LN support hopefully, and the snowball effect may appear, regardless of on-chain fees
and newcomers will learn very quickly, when is the proper moment to move sats into on-chain wallet if necessary...
I don't think that will be the case. In fact, it may hurt adoption.
We want people to own their own keys. However a congested network makes transacting with your own keys more expensive. Opening a lightning channel or simply transacting for 80,000 to 100,000 sats is a steep price to pay. This will push people towards custodial solutions. The congestion hurts one of the main use cases of Bitcoin which is being your own bank.
Imagine a normie opening a newspaper and reading this:
The CEO of JP Morgan made the controversial decision to raise bank transfer fees to $20 due to SWIFT being clogged by Pepe-related traffic. He claimed that it would be good for JP Morgan in the end: "Due to higher fees, it will push more people to the new generation of financial companies such as Revolut, and the more people need to use Revolut, the more they need a bank to top up their Revolut account".
Fees like this are going invite the banks and paypal because suddenly credit card fees and all the downsides of the legacy system are suddenly competitive. Im fine with that. I am mostly interested in Bitcoin as a form of money. I can use it as money with paypal, fine by me. However the base layer needs to stay decentralized and censorship resistant imo. But thats just my opinion.
LN doesn't really solve it since you still need to get a first transaction in to access the network, its really just people purchasing already added liquidity or liquidity coming from bigger nodes.
Most people who know fees are high are either using custodial services or custodial wallets which isn't ideal, while clueless people are finding out fees are high the hard way
I do think that this high fees are impacting onramps like exchanges I see Binance, holdhodl and Bisq said they would be getting LN and more will follow I am sure of it. Liquidity will flow to where it bags a good premium and we hope that people will follow the incentives to provide cheaper onramps be that exchanges or P2P trades
For me its interesting to see how the market reacts, I can only speak for myself now when I buy P2P I purchase a stablecoin and swap it into LN or Liquid instead which isnt what I used to do before, but its way cheaper compared to going on-chain