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2 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryptocoin 1 Apr 2022 \ on: The Bitcoin Adoption Thesis: 2022 and beyond bitcoin
There are three main reasons I believe Bitcoin will succeed:
  • Macro, de-dollarization, and the breakdown of the fiat system
  • The trend of self-sovereignty and pendulum shift back to decentralization
  • General network effects, digitization of the world, and monetary incentives for early adopters
As of this week, we have finally seen an inversion; with the 2-year yield surpassing the 10-year yield. Why would you lend out money for 10 years when you can get a better return lending it out for 2 years??
Higher yields lead to lower asset prices, which has triggered the downtrend we’ve seen in equities, particularly tech stocks.
Generally expect Bitcoin to do well in this environment with the caveat of a global dollar short squeeze, which would probably get responded to with giga printing where you want to go all-in Bitcoin. So yeah I know I sound like a moonboy, but all roads lead to Bitcoin in my eyes during this environment.
CBDCs are a wet dream for totalitarian regimes as they are no different than current fiat currencies aside from the fact that they serve surveillance systems on everyone. Jay-walked? Sorry, that’s 1% taken out of your digital wallet. We need to incentivize spending, so if you don’t buy goods and services, 5% of your Fed dollars will be diluted from your wallet by the end of year.
While CBDCs are surveillance money, Bitcoin is freedom money. It is permissionless, allowing usage by anyone with an internet connection; opening up the ability to store wealth to individuals with no access to banking across the world. Bitcoin is non-partisan, non-biased, it is for friends and enemies alike.
The three main things holding back institutions right now are regulatory/reputational risk, liquidity, and volatility. This trend of increasing security(hash rate), a growing amount of liquidity in the Bitcoin market, as well as decreased volatility, will make Bitcoin an increasingly approachable investment for larger entities. But as we mentioned earlier, adoption scales with the people who need it most.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptocoin 1 Apr 2022
The digital world is devouring everything around us, from libraries, movie theatres, grocery shopping, driving, and many jobs; why do we not yet have a digitally native currency?
The internet grew on the nails of the analog system; through word of mouth, TV commercials, radio, newspapers, billboards. Bitcoin is growing on the rails of the internet itself. The internet is a much faster medium for adoption effects to take place on top of than analog by orders of magnitude.
On the high-end Glassnode estimates there have been roughly 250MM unique entities on the Bitcoin network, which is roughly 3% of the global population. Funny enough that is the same point where the cellphone adoption chart started above, which took just 10 years to reach 80% saturation. A similar trajectory for Bitcoin would place it at just over 6.3 billion users by 2028 (not accounting for population growth).
Bitcoin is like water, it can and is many things depending on the circumstance. In an inflationary environment, Bitcoin is a store of value. In a deflationary environment, Bitcoin is an exponentially growing digital monetary network on the rails of the internet. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, it is a permissionless transfer of wealth across space and time that you can take anywhere in the world in your brain.
I believe BTC will reach 85–90% population saturation in my lifetime. Bitcoin is many things to many people, that is the beauty of it. That is why it won’t fail.
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