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Something else that might help.

It's important to distinguish these two questions:

(i) What is the probability that a block is found within any particular 10 minute interval?

(ii) What is the probability that the next is found within any particular 10 minute interval?

These are two different questions.

Example:

It's now 12:00. What is the probability that the next block is found between 1:00 and 1:10? Answer: very small. What is the probability that a block is found between 1:00 and 1:10? Answer: same as always, about 63%.

159 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby 17 Apr

a block vs the next block helps. Thank you.

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yeah, i realized that this is probably where much of the confusion lay

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Ah yes, this is kind of helpful. I understand the memory point now, I think

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