*a* block vs *the next* block helps. Thank you.

Ah yes, this is kind of helpful. I understand the memory point now, I think

Something else that might help.

It's important to distinguish these two questions:

(i)  What is the probability that *a block is found* within any particular 10 minute interval?

(ii) What is the probability that *the next* is found within any particular 10 minute interval?

These are two different questions.

Example:

It's now 12:00.  What is the probability that *the next* block is found between 1:00 and 1:10?  Answer: very small.  What is the probability that *a block* is found between 1:00 and 1:10?  Answer: same as always, about 63%.

SimpleStacker

Reading this over and over and not making progress. How can an improbable, outlier event (60-min block time) have the same probability as a standard, middle-of-the-diastribution one (10-min).

It doesn't.  I think you misunderstood the claim.

Imagine you roll 1 dice every minute, no matter what.

It's now 12:00.  What's the probability that you roll a 1 between 12:00 and 12:10?  What's the probability that your next 1 occurs between 1:00 and 1:10?

It's now 1:00. Forget about what happened in the past.  What's the probability that you'll roll a 1 between 1:00 and 1:10?

math

bitcoin

Bitcoin Math Primer: Poisson Processes

> Reading this over and over and not making progress. How can an improbable, outlier event (60-min block time) have the same probability as a standard, middle-of-the-diastribution one (10-min).

It doesn't.  I think you misunderstood the claim.


Imagine you roll 1 dice every minute, no matter what.

It's now 12:00.  What's the probability that you roll a 1 between 12:00 and 12:10?  What's the probability that your next 1 occurs between 1:00 and 1:10?

It's now 1:00. Forget about what happened in the past.  What's the probability that you'll roll a 1 between 1:00 and 1:10?