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’08 China/EM demand was ripping, supply was tight, and financial flows piled into commodities.
Oil ran to ~$147… then collapsed to ~$30 when demand broke.
So yeah, there was “room to run”… until there wasn’t.
This setup is different.
Price is already >$100 with ~20% of global supply tied to an impaired chokepoint.
That’s flow risk, not excess demand.
“Room to run” only matters if the barrels can move.
If Hormuz stays constrained, price doesn’t just run.
It reprices higher, and it can stay there longer.
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Fun fact: Trump helped trigger the biggest monthly spike in Brent crude on record: ~59% in March 2026.
That beat the previous record, ~46% in September 1990, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, by 13 percentage points, or about 28% larger on a relative basis.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2026-03-30/
Unlike the 1990 spike, this one isn’t just a war premium.
It’s being driven by an ongoing supply disruption through Hormuz, which is why analysts still see upside from here.