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After they fork they need to get a difficulty adjustment on their chain, no?
If they have 1% of hashrate on the knots chain then it takes 200 weeks to get a difficulty adjustment or like almost 4 years.
And blocks are every 1000 minutes so 6000 minutes or 100 hours... to get final confirmation at 1% hash.
Even if they had 10% of hashrate... It would still take 10 hours to get final confirmation, meanwhile all the merchants they supposedly love to use don't even accept their bitcoin because the vast majority of service providers still run core and on-chain confs will take a really long time.
Even opening a lightning channel with 3 confs... Would take 30 minutes x 10 or 300 minutes / 5 hours to open one channel.
Without hashrate their chain will be barely usable they want to "save bitcoin" because "bitcoin is money" how will they use it as money if they can't make transactions?
they'll just send on both sides
I don't think they're that sophisticated
No. They will fork the chaintip no matter what happens