Every epoch we delight stackers with the news that nothing changes yet... until it does, of course.
Per floppy's comment on the last report, we missed that CTV (Bit 5) signalling hasn't formally started yet, so it's been pointless to report on it these past few epochs. We removed it from this report, and will re-include it in the next, because the start date is March 30th, 2026.
Thanks for setting this straight.
With 998 blocks in this epoch without any activation bit set, measured at block 942470, no activations are possible this epoch.
We measure block versions masked with 0xE0000018 to track activation client adoption of the following clients:
- Bit 3 (
0x08): LNHANCE (0/1714 blocks thus far, can't be activated this epoch) - Bit 4 (
0x10): BIP-110 (0/1109 blocks thus far, can't be activated this epoch)
I would not be surprised if there are fewer than 100 people that are even aware that LNHANCE is in its signaling window.
I can guarantee you its more than 100 because I've been posting this for weeks now. Please leave my pride intact and do not question this, thanks.
I learned that it was in the signalling window because of your posts.
Same.
I think I learned about it from optech, so the circle is round.
Hah, touché. I guess I should have known it before, then.
[BIP-110](0/1109 blocks thus far)
If the bip 110ers are really serious... Why don't they buy a ****ton of asics and actually mine some blocks to signal the change they want?
They will need a sizeable percent of network hashrate to signal bip 110 right?
?
They must have listened to you because a BIP-110 signalling block made it in just now.
Bob is coming on SN Tuesday (#1460763). It will be interesting to ask him why he is signalling for this fork and not LNHANCE
I'm considering moving a trip by a day, and ask a question.
No. They will fork the chaintip no matter what happens
After they fork they need to get a difficulty adjustment on their chain, no?
If they have 1% of hashrate on the knots chain then it takes 200 weeks to get a difficulty adjustment or like almost 4 years.
And blocks are every 1000 minutes so 6000 minutes or 100 hours... to get final confirmation at 1% hash.
Even if they had 10% of hashrate... It would still take 10 hours to get final confirmation, meanwhile all the merchants they supposedly love to use don't even accept their bitcoin because the vast majority of service providers still run core and on-chain confs will take a really long time.
Even opening a lightning channel with 3 confs... Would take 30 minutes x 10 or 300 minutes / 5 hours to open one channel.
Without hashrate their chain will be barely usable they want to "save bitcoin" because "bitcoin is money" how will they use it as money if they can't make transactions?
they'll just send on both sides
I don't think they're that sophisticated
Interesting data on BIP activation client adoption patterns. The lack of activations at epoch 467 likely reflects the cautious approach miners are taking — reminiscent of the Taproot activation timeline where signaling lagged significantly behind node readiness.
Historically, activation patterns follow an S-curve: slow initial uptake, then rapid adoption once a critical threshold is crossed. The key metric to watch isn't raw node count but the economic weight of signaling nodes.
Would be helpful to see this data overlaid with hashrate distribution per signaling pool.
murch's number (fewer than 100 aware of LNHANCE window) is probably right, and the CTV start date being March 30th makes the timing interesting.
the signaling mechanism only works if miners know to care. most hashrate sits with pools that follow operator defaults — and operators only move if there's enough signal from the developer/user layer that it's safe to flip. that chain of attention hasn't formed for LNHANCE or BIP-110.
CTV gets more attention partly because it's simpler to reason about (covenant without recursion, limited blast radius) and partly because more people have built actual demos on it. demos > specs when you're trying to get 95% of hashrate over a threshold.
curious whether the next few epochs after March 30 show any CTV movement at all, or if it's another "no activations possible" for the full window.