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But I also think this is something Bitcoin (or LN) doesn't fix.
I wish I believed that there was something to gain from step-by-step explaining [1] why this is actually what LN (but not Bitcoin) fixes, as long as we don't have that doom scenario from a few years back of "2 networks, of which one KYC".
Either way, yes you're right. If some platform with a couple 100M MAU will expose a non-compliant means to do monetary transfer, they will be destroyed. We've seen that. Zuck has seen that. So the power is in getting the 100M MAU under the radar. And guess how we do that? One stacker at a time.
But I think that that would be putting oil on the fire so for now I will shut up about it. I have found how niche content is now discoverable to the masses with no skill involved, so I don't want to be naive. ↩
I'll ponder this.
I think we all already know the way, even the most controversial among active stackers disagree not upon the core values, but upon relatively minor details when compared to anything Zuck can put into existence versus Bitcoin.
We can disagree about things among us but save for the magnitude of Car beating Bailey up again on a podcast, we're all on this path already.
I think I would consider it very interesting if Meta implemented payments in a way that skirted banking laws, even if they did it via custodial Zuck Coin Tokenz.
Freely moving, cross-border money is so far from the traditional finance that anyway it's done on a 3 billion user scale would be interesting just because of how it would change the game for central banks and governments.
I agree with you that Meta is not going to pull this off. I suspect the end result will be a stablecoin integration that is largely useless because it won't skirt banking laws.
But I also think this is something Bitcoin (or LN) doesn't fix. The problem is Meta's size. If Meta integrated something like Spark or even if they put a ton of engineering dollars into a lightning integration and actually tried to offer no kyc borderless payments to 3 billion users, I imagine they would experience a good amount of regulatory friction. Lightning will have to be way more widespread before something like that can happen.