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If income gains since 2020 are concentrated amongst homeowners (not an unreasonable hypothesis), then price compared to income may not have changed as dramatically and it would suggest there's an income distribution angle to this story that's important.

As to the institutional share of residential real estate, from what I've seen it is pretty trivial. Although, I don't know how significantly it impacts the normal margins in this market. Homes don't change hands very often, so it could be true that it's both a small share of houses and a large share of transaction volume.

here's another graph on that same topic, courtesy of @Scoresby
#1436212

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Pretty dramatic trend reversal, but it only applies to a small share from each income group.

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so just browsing the graph, that's a ~5%-point increase from the extreme/artificial lows of covid. From a "health" 2018 baseline we're, what, 3% points higher?

Kind of stuff pretty disturbing

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All of them are right where they were in 2016.

The Covid trough is a pure policy artifact, so you at least have to start from those 2020 cliff edges. My reading is that as additional 1% of people from the poorest group are 90 days delinquent, comparing immediately pre-Covid to now.

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oh right... maybe I'd like a longer timeframe, assuming the the downward trend coming from high GFC readings... but yeas, yours is a much more obvious interpretation; not sure what I was doing -.-

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good reflections, sir. Maybe you should go do the hard work of figuring these things out!

I'm just a lowly commentariat, writing shit and posting stuff

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