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I picked 5 because that's a round number that nocoiners are more used to evaluating mututal funds etc., not to cherry pick.

4 years is actually a stronger claim than 5:

1,050 out of 1,050 periods profitable (100%)

Not a single 4-year holding period in Bitcoin's history has lost money. The key comparison:
┌────────────────┬──────────────────┬─────────────────┐
│ │ 4-year hold │ 5-year hold │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Profitable │ 100% (1050/1050) │ 99.9% (958/959) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Median return │ 1,382% (14.8x) │ 3,108% (32x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Average return │ 15,553% (156x) │ 18,229% (183x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Worst period │ +31% │ -12% │
└────────────────┴──────────────────┴─────────────────┘
The 5-year number actually has one losing period (bought Dec 2017 peak, sold Dec 2022 FTX crash bottom), but 4 years avoids that because 4 years from the 2017 peak lands you in late 2021 —
right in the bull market.

The worst 4-year return was buying in April 2021 at ~$58k and selling April 2025 at ~$76k — still a 31% gain.

So you could actually make a stronger statement: every person who has ever bought Bitcoin and held for 4 years has made money, with a median return of about 14x.

alright, good to know.

(At least the 4-year has some theoretical/ex-ante rationale, so we're not just chart hunting and cherry-picking observation points)

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