pull down to refresh
No. 5 years is magical term for all hodlers to become profitable. Google "hodl cave unchained capital" for example.
I picked 5 because that's a round number that nocoiners are more used to evaluating mututal funds etc., not to cherry pick.
4 years is actually a stronger claim than 5:
1,050 out of 1,050 periods profitable (100%)
Not a single 4-year holding period in Bitcoin's history has lost money. The key comparison:
┌────────────────┬──────────────────┬─────────────────┐
│ │ 4-year hold │ 5-year hold │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Profitable │ 100% (1050/1050) │ 99.9% (958/959) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Median return │ 1,382% (14.8x) │ 3,108% (32x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Average return │ 15,553% (156x) │ 18,229% (183x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Worst period │ +31% │ -12% │
└────────────────┴──────────────────┴─────────────────┘
The 5-year number actually has one losing period (bought Dec 2017 peak, sold Dec 2022 FTX crash bottom), but 4 years avoids that because 4 years from the 2017 peak lands you in late 2021 —
right in the bull market.
The worst 4-year return was buying in April 2021 at ~$58k and selling April 2025 at ~$76k — still a 31% gain.
So you could actually make a stronger statement: every person who has ever bought Bitcoin and held for 4 years has made money, with a median return of about 14x.
alright, good to know.
(At least the 4-year has some theoretical/ex-ante rationale, so we're not just chart hunting and cherry-picking observation points)
I'm sorry, you said something right?
https://x.com/Birdyword/status/2019539083731824996
you are talking with an impersonator
suspicious that you used 5 years all of a sudden.
Used to be 4 years (for cycle logic) but even that is pretty arbitrary. Do you wanna do another round with
a) average holding period as shown in on-chained data,
b) best and worst holding periods simulating how people actually live with money, e.g., monthly/weekly/quarterly etc
And realistically, don't start in Aug 2010 but a little later.
My hunch is that people living in bitcoin, not just OGs or DCA-and-forget-forever, say in the last 5-8 years, have not had such a good time.