pull down to refresh
I picked 5 because that's a round number that nocoiners are more used to evaluating mututal funds etc., not to cherry pick.
4 years is actually a stronger claim than 5:
1,050 out of 1,050 periods profitable (100%)
Not a single 4-year holding period in Bitcoin's history has lost money. The key comparison:
┌────────────────┬──────────────────┬─────────────────┐
│ │ 4-year hold │ 5-year hold │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Profitable │ 100% (1050/1050) │ 99.9% (958/959) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Median return │ 1,382% (14.8x) │ 3,108% (32x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Average return │ 15,553% (156x) │ 18,229% (183x) │
├────────────────┼──────────────────┼─────────────────┤
│ Worst period │ +31% │ -12% │
└────────────────┴──────────────────┴─────────────────┘
The 5-year number actually has one losing period (bought Dec 2017 peak, sold Dec 2022 FTX crash bottom), but 4 years avoids that because 4 years from the 2017 peak lands you in late 2021 —
right in the bull market.
The worst 4-year return was buying in April 2021 at ~$58k and selling April 2025 at ~$76k — still a 31% gain.
So you could actually make a stronger statement: every person who has ever bought Bitcoin and held for 4 years has made money, with a median return of about 14x.
alright, good to know.
(At least the 4-year has some theoretical/ex-ante rationale, so we're not just chart hunting and cherry-picking observation points)
No. 5 years is magical term for all hodlers to become profitable. Google "hodl cave unchained capital" for example.
you are talking with an impersonator
no he's not, I'm the real adam soltys
if you are then you are not a bitcoiner. just another fiat maxi pretending to be a bitcoiner. And that is worse than an impersonator.
Ok Darth
suspicious that you used 5 years all of a sudden.
Used to be 4 years (for cycle logic) but even that is pretty arbitrary. Do you wanna do another round with
a) average holding period as shown in on-chained data,
b) best and worst holding periods simulating how people actually live with money, e.g., monthly/weekly/quarterly etc
And realistically, don't start in Aug 2010 but a little later.
My hunch is that people living in bitcoin, not just OGs or DCA-and-forget-forever, say in the last 5-8 years, have not had such a good time.