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Yes, my read of the situation is that in 2015/2016...prior to election....Trump was saying things like "why do we even need to be in NATO, etc".....
My take is he went in with the idea he could just pull out, then military advisors explained to him that it wasn't so simple, that in effect Europe was our advanced warning system and there would be some drawbacks to not having that....
Hence, the full court press to "get Greenland" during his second term. I think everyone in Europe knows thats the plan, which is why thats why they are so hysterical trying to stop it.
Greenland as a substitute for NATO is the only explanation that makes much sense to me, because there are agreements in place already that allow the US military to pretty much do whatever they want in Greenland.
Both sides have been very restrained in saying not the truth out loud, I think because its one of those things that once spoken can't be taken back (kinda like telling your spouse you are considering divorce).....
Once it gets to the stage where they are "saying it out loud" Trump is going to have the better narrative...."why should american tax dollars be paying for french defense....etc"
Domestically it would be hard for democrats to counter this as Trump will use the same message.
Having said all that, there are quite of few negative things that will probably come from this....I can't see how this doesn't lead to active animosity between US - EU going forward. Tariffs, fines against US companies, travel restrictions, etc....
If USA leaves NATO EU moves toward China very swiftly.
Most profitable trade for Europe is already with China, not the USA.
Nato is the only thing holding Europes loyalty to USA.
Without Europe the petrodollar in unenforceable and the US is swiftly insolvent.
That is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard you say. Europe has shown it is willing to make itself suffer for its goals. Plus you mean to tell me the sharp rise in Nationalism somehow equals China?! No it equals going back to the US
Also the you can drop the whole petrodollar idea. The military and just so your happy the dumb bombs and other stock piles we have that don’t use rare earths can cover a war for months before more drastic means are taken.
This of course doesn’t include the cyber capabilities of the US which have been… missing…. That’s not good for China, Russia, or Iran.
Canada has already shown you what happens.
Half of Chinas trade is now denominated in Yuan.
Get used to it- the US empire is in decline.
All USA has left is dumb bombs and USTs nobody wants.
You understand that Canada has either the largest or second largest Taiwanese populations out of China and so socially it isnt going to work. China already was caught using its embassy's for the "police stations" and most importantly the car manufacturing sector, one of the most critical for Canada, has gotten screwed over in China again and again. Carney can say what he wants but the underlying social and economic facts show it isnt going to happen. Sure he can try but it will cost him and his party the government.
You understand why the Chinese Yuan use skyrocketed right? It's due to the Russian trade being done almost exclusively in it. When you factor in the rest of the world the number falls significantly
In 2025, the yuan accounted for 26.5% of China’s cross-border trade in goods, according to the People’s Bank of China, with 30% of all trade now settled in yuan—a milestone driven by geopolitical shifts and Western sanctions.
With the bombs.... Uh.... you slap a $50 kit on there and yeah no everyone wants the guild bombs aka the dumb bombs. They have been shown to pay a significant role in modern military fights with Russia's invasion of Ukraine showing how critical they are since they cant be jammed and can be dropped from friendly skys.
You realise Taiwan will be be begging to rejoin the mainland before Trump is finished reshoring chip production?
As will Europe and all of the civilised world.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trumps-threats-to-allies-stir-worry-that-u-s-has-lost-its-way-6bc05fcb
'On Thursday, he plans to unveil what he is calling a Board of Peace that aims to supplant the United Nations—and be led by him, in perpetuity.'
Trump is losing it.
Yes US SWIFT/trade sanctions on Russia have certainly hastened the decline of the USD and rise of the Yuan and thats why Trump has been so desperate to end the war and get Russia back to using USD- good luck with that - it was gonna take a day- now?
Maybe never.
The dumb use of sanctions has demonstrated China can provide a viable set of trade, trade payments and supply chain alternatives to the US.
USA/USD/SWIFT is no longer the only game in town.
Anyone can be a terrorist but maintaining credible super power status requires a certain degree of moral fibre and dropping dumb bombs denying climate change and generally acting like a sociopathic mafia bully does not cut it.
Its all downhill from here, sadly, for the US empire...with Trump at the helm.
The ultimate Trump card is that Europe needs America to stay in NATO way more than America needs to stay in NATO, so this obviously ends with America getting what it wants from Europe.