The minerals aren’t rare. China’s marginal advantage is a willingness to accept human and environmental costs other nations eschewed.
With its recent announcement of a trade deal with China, the White House intended to reassure markets, manufacturers, and the military that China would not sever the supply lines of “rare earths” to the United States. Among other concessions, Beijing committed itself to avoid restricting exports of rare earth elements and related critical minerals essential to advanced manufacturing, clean “green” energy, and modern weapons systems. The agreement was described as a win for American economic strength and national security. But the very need for such a promise reveals an uncomfortable truth: the United States, long the world’s leading industrial power, has become dependent on the goodwill of a strategic rival for materials central to its economy and its defense.
That dependence did not arise because rare earth minerals are scarce. They are not. Nor did it arise because China alone possesses the technical capacity to mine or refine them. It arose from a long chain of economic and political decisions — made largely in free societies — that concentrated production in a country willing to accept costs others would not.
Understanding how that happened is essential to understanding why China’s apparent monopoly is far less “coercive,” and far less durable, than it looks.Not Rare, Just Hell To ProcessNot Rare, Just Hell To Process
How China Built DominanceHow China Built Dominance
From Specialization to VulnerabilityFrom Specialization to Vulnerability
Coercive Monopolies Are FragileCoercive Monopolies Are Fragile
...read more at thedailyeconomy.org
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China has a monopoly on refining expertise: converting minerals to metallic compounds
Like the article stated the only think China has an advantage in when it comes to rare earths is the willingness to ignore environmental disasters the old way of refining caused. The new methods being utilized at Mountain Pass, USA Rare Earths, and Phoenix Tailings use modern (thus more expensive upfront) methods.
US there is already one US company that manufactures permanent magnets (the whole reason rare earths are important) that do not require rare earths and use minerals that the US already produces.
I asked Lumo (proton)...
Key Take‑aways
Short‑term (next 2‑3 years)
Pilot plants and early‑stage refineries (e.g., MP Materials’ Utah pilot, Caremag financing) will start producing limited quantities of refined rare‑earth oxides and magnets. These projects begin to diversify supply, but China will still dominate (> 70 % of processing).
Medium‑term (2025‑2027)
Government‑driven “mine‑to‑magnet” programs (U.S. DoD, Japanese METI) aim for strategic‑defense independence by the 2027 timeframe. Expect a handful of hundred‑ton‑scale magnet production lines, enough to meet military needs but still a tiny slice of the global market.
Long‑term (by 2030 and beyond)
Planned refineries in the U.S., Europe, and Australia could collectively achieve roughly half of China’s 2024 processing capacity. Even then, China would retain a sizable lead because of its entrenched expertise, supply‑chain integration, and lower cost base. Full parity may not be realistic until the 2030s, assuming continued policy support and capital investment.
What drives the timeline?
Capital intensity & technical expertise – Building a rare‑earth separation plant costs hundreds of millions of dollars and requires specialized chemistry knowledge that China has cultivated for decades.
Regulatory environment – Western environmental standards raise costs and lengthen permitting times; easing these (while maintaining safety) can accelerate projects.
Strategic subsidies & public‑private partnerships – The U.S. DoD, Japan’s METI, and European ministries are already earmarking billions of dollars; the speed of disbursement influences construction schedules.
Demand growth – Rapid expansion of EVs, renewable‑energy gear, and defense systems pushes governments to prioritize supply‑chain resilience, which can compress timelines.
Bottom line
A meaningful reduction in China’s leverage is plausible within the next 5‑7 years, especially for defense‑critical supplies.
Achieving a truly balanced global rare‑earth market will likely take a decade or more, with the 2030 horizon being the earliest realistic point for external capacity to approach half of China’s current processing share.
Li-Cycle and Redwoods Materials have already made recycling both EV batteries and Redwoods is expanding their offerings to more components. The chemistry aspect of separation the National Labs have already hashed out which is much less toxic than what China uses.
This list is also missing a few other companies like USA Rare Earths who is brining there Stillwater, OK magnet facility online this year (its already been running test runs) and Niron Magnetics is scaling up its permeant magnet manufacturing with its pilot plant already delivering 1,000s of tons and its Commercial plant due to be operational in early 2027.
China will likely maintain some of their supply chain long term but anything National Security related will start moving to direct US or 5 Eyes minerals as soon as they can.
why is toxicity relevant?
If it's not relevant, don't bring it up, it's empty filler
That's not their only advantage, the article omits or trivializes their refining expertise.
New methods are encouraging, hopefully new methods will make 'old' way of refining irrelevant
What percentage of the US military and its suppliers needs can be provided by non Chinese refined rare earths (or equivalents) suppliers now and into the future?
1%?
3%?
5%?
Be specific.
S I L E N C E.
The US military industrial combine is crippled for at least a decade - beholden to Chinas refined rare earths supply chain dominance.
Time for the obese US imperialist hegemony to eat the bitter fruits of its decades of extraordinary entitlement, arrogance and negligence...
I love how you just drop silence like that does something. The Department of War is already receiving US mined and manufactured from Mountain Pass. I have no idea the exact percentage but I do know that the DOW has already been stock piling these minerals for a while now so.....
Look at the comment above you.... its another check against what you are saying. Unless you are talking 2030 then sure all give you that but again the US has stockpiled these minerals and we could if we had none right now repurpose minerals from our enormous bone yards.
For defense purposes its already using US produced and as it all scales up it will continue to increase until not just military but National Security areas only use US or 5 Eye minerals.
It would be different if the US did not have anything either built or being built but we already have and have spent years doing so.
The comment above is AI generated so there is no credible source for data even then it confirms that the military have almost zero supply currently and might hope to have a minimal degree of supply by 2027.
The dates in the AI summary are not even logical comparing 'Short‑term (next 2‑3 years)' to ' Medium‑term (2025‑2027)'!
Does the AI engine even know we are already in 2026!?!
S I L E N C E anticipates the fact that you repeatedly do not have the data to support your assertions...and demonstrably you don't!
Just like the US military industrial combine you are an apologist for, you are operating on maximum wing and a prayer hopium and blind faith in US exceptionalism, when the reality does not match up.
Welp here straight from MP Materials from literally a year ago about commerical production of the whole supply chain starting.
https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/MP-Materials-Restores-U.S.-Rare-Earth-Magnet-Production/default.aspx
Heres another one that also producing and has even launched recycling efforts.
https://noveon.co/rare-earths-producers-look-to-us-boom
https://www.recyclingtoday.com/news/noveon-magnetics-launches-rare-earth-magnet-recycling-initiative/
I mean how many more facts do you need? MP Materials is building a second plant even for the DOW specifically. Also MP's mine produces 15% of the REE in the world and they arent going to China anymore.
Oh and if you want a whole of industry look here ya go
https://www.csis.org/analysis/developing-rare-earth-processing-hubs-analytical-approach#h2-what-the-united-states-is-currently-doing
China has a massive head start and superior technical know-how and infrastructure. Not a monopoly
Right now, China dominates refining because USA has been asleep at the wheel for 25 years at least
Over time, USA will catch up and surpass China in refining but not overnight
Yes but for the next decade at least the US military industrial combine is largely beholden to China for refined rare earths supply.
IE for the next decade USA cannot fight a war of any scale and duration without Chinas approval.
That gives China a window of opportunity to eclipse US dominance in the few remaining strategic areas it still lags behind in, like microchip production, military and monetary hegemony.
USA/the West does not enjoy a permanent God given monopoly over advanced microchip production, or military and monetary power projection dominance...just a head start and superior technical know-how and infrastructure.
In most mercantile productive economic areas China already enjoys a massive advantage,
Where's our Washington correspondent @Cje95 to spin this on behalf of US imperialism?
This article goes against everything you spew? The US started standing up the facilities and workforce required all the way back in 2020. As such we are seeing refining and magnet production turning on now (well in some cases it started last year). Your whole decade argument had a start date of 2017/2018 and now production is coming online and in some cases being accelerated with the Roundtop mine in Texas.
You repeatedly spout bold claims without the required backing of relevant data and evidence.
You are a taxpayer funded apologist for the critical failure of US military to plan vital strategic supply chain resilience.
Specifically what percentage of the US military and its suppliers needs can be provided by non Chinese refined rare earths suppliers now and into the future?
S I L E N C E !
The US will never be self reliant without massive ongoing taxpayer funded subsidies to refiners and those supplies will take at least a decade to be capable of full US self reliance free of Chinese supplies.
You want me to predict what future military things are going to be made out of.... what? Its hilarious that you think that companies give exact percentages of things as well. There are somethings in the world that are classified and how to make a F-35 and what exactly it is made out of is guess what one of those.
You do not know if when or if ever US military industrial combine will be independent of reliance upon Chinese refined rare earths supply chains.
Thank you for confirming this.
Uh no I am certain that they will be when the production is scaled up because there is legislation to make it so. Just like the Rip and Replace Law.
Your faith in the power of legislation to repair the decades of decline in US military industrial complex supply chain capacity is charming, but not based on anything more than blind US exceptionalist hubris.
The US military industrial complex is a hollow man - headless chicken lacking vital supply chain support structures due to decades of the systemic neoliberal decimation/global outsourcing of US industrial productive capacity.
It is not only refined rare earths supply chains where the US military industrial complex is deficient, but in a plethora of other strategic supply chains which China now dominates.
There is no guarantee future administrations will continue with the massive taxpayer subsidies being applied currently to stimulate US refined rare earths supply...so you cannot reasonably be certain the process will succeed as it will not be completed under the current administration.