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I know he’s a shutcoiner, but this reminds me of something I heard from Balaji recently. He basically said he sees the new struggle for power to be between China and the internet, basically the same way the US struggled against the British in the 18th century.
US exceptionalism is unequivocally over, but I’m not personally convinced that China’s the guaranteed replacement. How exactly do you see the CCP being held to the Mandate of Heaven? It seems to me that they’ve done a pretty good job keeping the people down for quite some time now.
I would also not assert that China is guaranteed to replace the US as the dominant group but the trends do mostly indicate that is the direction things are headed in.
China is now both covertly and increasingly openly challenging US hegemony.
Iran and Russia can only continue to function because of China circumventing US sanctions on the sale of their oil and gas.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine forcing Europe and the US into a costly conflict while Iran appears under huge pressure it is still aligned with and leading opposition to Israel and US influence in the middle east.
China itself has confronted the US more in the economic field and in terms of technology building its capability to design and build (and copy) the most modern high technologies.
Heavens Mandate applies to the CCP ever since it abandoned Communism- todays CCP cannot be said to be Communist but is since Deng applying a mercantile mixed economy state capitalist model of economic development. In fact since Deng there have been a range of different often experimental economic strategic approaches taken in China but none of them are pure Communist- most are a mixed model allowing individuals to own and operate competitively in a market while the state still operates strategic infrastructure such as energy with the role of providing inputs to businesses at the lowest possible cost- the aim being to make China Inc the most competitive efficient economy in the world. This strategy has been successful and is now forcing China to challenge the US in terms of global institutions and protocols where the US has until recently dominated.
Heavens Mandate applies because it is the economic development that Chinas government are enabling which allows them to continue to hold power despite abandoning the Communist ideology that was previously their alleged rationale for holding power.
Dengs 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics' has largely succeeded for most Chinese people and as long as it continues to most Chinese people are likely to accept the continued rule of the CCP...although if China achieves definitive global dominance Chinese people can be expected to demand more and more 'rights' and 'freedoms' just as the citizens of every empire in history have done.
Heavens Mandate applies because it is the economic development that Chinas government are enabling which allows them to continue to hold power despite abandoning the Communist ideology that was previously their alleged rationale for holding power.
Dengs 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics' has largely succeeded for most Chinese people and as long as it continues to most Chinese people are likely to accept the continued rule of the CCP...although if China achieves definitive global dominance Chinese people can be expected to demand more and more 'rights' and 'freedoms' just as the citizens of every empire in history have done.
Now that you mention it, it seems that Heavens Mandate viewed this way would be functioning as a type of unwritten constitution in the way I describe above. I’m just not so sure that it will play out that way without any sort of written, explicit fleshing out of what people should expect guaranteed to them.
Yes over time it seems likely Chinese people will demand more explicit rights and freedoms- previously they were simply hungry and poor- once they have achieved a level of material security it is natural to want and probably demand more rights and freedoms, better environment and a more formal political structure.
If the CCP continues to deliver mostly what they want it might remain in power but an increasingly educated and wealthy population might also want a more responsive and representative form of government than what is now a quasi CCP dynasty.
The way people organise into groups is constantly evolving.
It is a contest to see who can organise in the most powerful way- the way that can be the most productive and can project power sufficiently to seize the most territory, energy and resources.
The USA enjoyed that dominance in the 20th century- today China is rising to dominate global energy markets, technology, manufacturing and commodity markets.
What is crucial is the combination of incentives for individuals and governments.
The west has seen corporates capture governments via lobbying, undermining democracy and creating crony capitalism.
In China, ironically the CCP and its modern form of Heavens Mandate means the CCP must provide economic improvement or risk removal- probably via a brutal uprising.
Chinas mixed economy recognises the partnership between the government and citizens and operates on a quite federal level with regional governments playing a major role in economic development.
Today China looks like it will be the dominant human group in the 21st century and how that affects us all remains to be seen but must be considered by anyone with their eyes open and not blinded by US Exceptionalist hype and arrogance.
People will always argue that one or another form of government is superior but the proof is in the real world and the real world is constantly evolving where dynamics and technology constantly change.