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He lost 69k on the Predyx bet? How does the platform even allow a bet that big with such low liquidity? Shouldn’t it cap the bet at the available liquidity?
No, he basically bid the price to 100% and then bought a ton of shares at 100% odds.
@mega_dreamer, setting a cap might be reasonable. I'm thinking about the level at which the possible return becomes negative because of fees.
I might be missing something, but who ends up with the extra liquidity he injected into the market that didn’t get used? Does it go to Predyx?
When he placed the bet there was 2,100 sats of liquidity, and he injected 69k. So best case scenario, he could only win those 2,100. Maybe more if someone else bet against him afterward.
Basically, he just added liquidity to the market, right? I didn’t see how the market looked at resolution, but I’m guessing there was still unused liquidity left. Does that excess go straight to Predyx?
Most of it went to liquidity bot which bought up 65k seagulls shares after RBD made his trade but there were other winners too.
Here is what was left over once the market was settled.
Poor @realBitcoinDog, jumping into something he doesn’t fully get, while Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
To be fair to Predyx, they're donating the sats he blew to ~Stacker_Sports.
So, RBD will have an opportunity to win them back from all the contests we run.
Poor Predix, they felt sorry! Haha, what a contradiction. Shouldn’t they donate it to the ~HealthAndFitness territory insted? Ahahah
Felt sorry!
For what?? Where?
I am going to do a boosted post in health and fitness to share some of the sats but have to think of something good to post about.
lol, clearly they think sats directly in RBD's hands are too dangerous.
They did a 140k sats boost in territory. So they donated much more than RBD's sats.
while Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
Poor Predix, they felt sorry! Haha, what a contradiction. Shouldn’t they donate it to the ~HealthAndFitness territory insted? Ahahah
Negative posts like these is the reason why I've been staying away from StackerNews.
And no - I don't feel guilty or sorry.
This is what you're trying to do - is you try to steer people into guilt trip. A very subtle form of manipulation. Nice try.
I will vouch for @0xbitcoiner here. I dont think he understood how it works and just lumped it in with traditional sport books that exploit users, bet against them etc.
I know there are probably a few very loud voices on SN that don’t approve Predyx but I think they are a very small group. Overall most stackers like predyx and want to support a bitcoin native prediction market even if it is not something they are interested in using.
Thanks @grayruby for making me feel at ease. Apologies for the harsh words.
Being a market creator yourself, you probably know better that creating an AMM market with low volume is a loss for the creators.
We've been loosing couple of million sats every month while funding the markets with modest liquidity. The reason we're doing this is that we know this is the only way to bootstrap a new prediction market.
while Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
And when someone accuses you of this ☝️ It feel like no matter what you do for bitcoin in terms of bitcoin usability beyond store of value, you always receive hatred.
I wish people understood, that bitcoin will die if it only becomes "store of value" as rightly said by Jack Dorsey.
Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
Are you alleging something here?
That’s not specific to Predix, it’s how the whole betting industry works.
It should be noted that Predyx being in beta, besides the costs of operations, has lost a ton of sats standing up all these markets with very little fees earned so we can all essentially beta test the product. They are far from making a killing, quite the opposite in fact.
Is there documentation as to how it works? I've been hesitant to jump in more because I don't grok how it works, how the odds are set, etc. I can understand buying and selling "yes" vs "no" shares p2p, plus maybe some initial market-making offers, but I don't really understand how things work on Predyx. It seems that buying shares automatically changes the price, so i'm buying from a Predyx pricing algorithm, not from some other user offering shares.
It's explained in this guide for market creators.
Initial liquidity sets the parameters for how responsive the odds are to price.
You know I'm gonna have to do an analysis on this now.
Looking forward to it.
They are aware of some of the shortcomings of the specific function they chose and are working to implement a more sophisticated market maker formula, as well as some sort of order book functionality.
What happened is a Predyx bot saw the insane price and bought up a ton of very cheap shares to get the odds back to a reasonable place. So, a lot of it goes to Predyx that way.
However, had the bot not swooped in, another user would have purchased the very cheap shares and gotten most of RBD's sats.
So just to wrap it up: he bet 69k knowing that, at minimum, he’d make those 2,100 sats, with a chance to make more only if someone else bet against him? If that’s the case, the platform should at least warn users, shouldn’t it?
he’d make those 2,100 sats, with a chance to make more only if someone else bet against him?
No, he bought 69k shares in the outcome, which would pay 69k sats if that outcome happened. What other people do makes no difference.
the platform should at least warn users, shouldn’t it?
Probably, hence my suggestion to @mega_dreamer. Most of the users don't just YOLO into a position without looking at the terms, but that is something they should be prepared for and protecting wildly reckless gamblers from themselves would be smart PR.
I think there's always a warning/transparency on what a user would win on his investment.
It's quite visible on the Prediction slip itself.
It is quite visible for those who are paying attention. It's not actually clear what the marginal costs and benefits are, just the averages. So, you can make an order that includes negative net-value shares without realizing it.
What I'm recommending is some sort of warning or automated veto for trades that are guaranteed losses: ie, once you're paying so close to 100 sats per share that your payout can only be less than what you spent.
In this case, it would have purchased however many thousands of shares got the price up towards 100 and then refunded the rest of the sats that he tried to spend.
Yes - I thought about how to warn new users who don't k now how PM works with regards to probability. We will implement something like this to mitigate it:
I like the slider mechanism. If the highest and lowest points on the slider corresponded to the edges of possibly positive returns, then anyone using the slider would avoid the RBD problem (as it should be known henceforth).
Obviously, it's up to you guys how paternalistic you want to be, but I'd only have these warnings pop up for pretty extreme scenarios.
i wish I lost more
You lost slightly less than 69k sats