pull down to refresh
Most of it went to liquidity bot which bought up 65k seagulls shares after RBD made his trade but there were other winners too.
Here is what was left over once the market was settled.
Poor @realBitcoinDog, jumping into something he doesn’t fully get, while Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
To be fair to Predyx, they're donating the sats he blew to ~Stacker_Sports.
So, RBD will have an opportunity to win them back from all the contests we run.
Poor Predix, they felt sorry! Haha, what a contradiction. Shouldn’t they donate it to the ~HealthAndFitness territory insted? Ahahah
Felt sorry!
For what?? Where?
Do you work with the Predix team?
What does it have to do with I work or not?
I don't.
I just didn't notice in the post mega dreamer did earlier with the boost. Was there a mention about 'felt sorry'?
I think realbitcoindog knew it well that what he was paying for?
Your words actually seem to be suggesting that Predyx is misleading, which I can't see as user.
I read somewhere that they were going to make a donation! If they didn’t feel sorry, they wouldn’t have done the boost. I never said Predyx did it on purpose.
You shouldn’t do that. He’s gotta pay for his own stupidity.
At least this made it clear why he hates gambling so much
lol, clearly they think sats directly in RBD's hands are too dangerous.
Predix makes a killing off people’s ignorance. That’s how the game works.
Are you alleging something here?
That’s not specific to Predix, it’s how the whole betting industry works.
It should be noted that Predyx being in beta, besides the costs of operations, has lost a ton of sats standing up all these markets with very little fees earned so we can all essentially beta test the product. They are far from making a killing, quite the opposite in fact.
I might’ve used a bit too strong wording, that wasn’t what I meant. Go easy on me, English isn’t my first language.
👍👍
I think you should start using Predyx just casually maybe and you will better understand it's not similar to betting or sportsbook providers at all.
You can even start with 1 sat, also Predyx is a Bitcoin product which we can appreciate.
To that point, the reason they charge higher fees on purchases than sales is that they lose money on average when people participate in their markets.
What happened is a Predyx bot saw the insane price and bought up a ton of very cheap shares to get the odds back to a reasonable place. So, a lot of it goes to Predyx that way.
However, had the bot not swooped in, another user would have purchased the very cheap shares and gotten most of RBD's sats.
So just to wrap it up: he bet 69k knowing that, at minimum, he’d make those 2,100 sats, with a chance to make more only if someone else bet against him? If that’s the case, the platform should at least warn users, shouldn’t it?
he’d make those 2,100 sats, with a chance to make more only if someone else bet against him?
No, he bought 69k shares in the outcome, which would pay 69k sats if that outcome happened. What other people do makes no difference.
the platform should at least warn users, shouldn’t it?
Probably, hence my suggestion to @mega_dreamer. Most of the users don't just YOLO into a position without looking at the terms, but that is something they should be prepared for and protecting wildly reckless gamblers from themselves would be smart PR.
I think there's always a warning/transparency on what a user would win on his investment.
It's quite visible on the Prediction slip itself.
It is quite visible for those who are paying attention. It's not actually clear what the marginal costs and benefits are, just the averages. So, you can make an order that includes negative net-value shares without realizing it.
What I'm recommending is some sort of warning or automated veto for trades that are guaranteed losses: ie, once you're paying so close to 100 sats per share that your payout can only be less than what you spent.
In this case, it would have purchased however many thousands of shares got the price up towards 100 and then refunded the rest of the sats that he tried to spend.
This actually seems like the right thing to do. I know it’s a game and that the game is designed to take advantage of careless players, but the platform needs to have some player protection mechanisms.
the game is designed to take advantage of careless players
That may be a purpose of traditional sportsbooks, but it really isn't the goal of prediction markets. The goal is to elicit as much information as possible by rewarding well-informed positions.
Careless predictors are a boon to more savvy ones, but not to the platform.
In this case, it’s because they made a lot of money off RBF’s massive bet.
On capping for purchase of shares, I think this is great idea. Also I remember @mega_dreamer mentioned earlier about creating a different type of structure, just like AMM, for Predyx markets. I think that will solve the problem.
AMM, for Predyx markets. I think that will solve the problem.
As I understand it, it wouldn't fully solve the problem, but it would reduce it. Dropping large positions into small markets would directly increase the liquidity which would reduce how much the price moves. Someone could still overwhelm the odds though.
Yeah, right. I think they'll come up with some good solution or will make it better. I leave it on them. I like the platform for they are genuine unlike non-users might think.
I don't think we (I, you and @grayruby) have had any of trust related issues with Predyx. Did we?
Predyx is still developing or improving, which we can see. My guess is that building such a platform with lightning network should be a challenge in itself, Bitcoiners should not criticize their endeavour harshly and inaccurately if not appreciated.
I might be missing something, but who ends up with the extra liquidity he injected into the market that didn’t get used? Does it go to Predyx?
When he placed the bet there was 2,100 sats of liquidity, and he injected 69k. So best case scenario, he could only win those 2,100. Maybe more if someone else bet against him afterward.
Basically, he just added liquidity to the market, right? I didn’t see how the market looked at resolution, but I’m guessing there was still unused liquidity left. Does that excess go straight to Predyx?