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350 sats \ 2 replies \ @steakneggs 10 Dec \ parent \ on: New Polymarket Account Places $40k on NO Fed Rate Change Today econ
I think there should be more insider trading. If the purpose is to approximate the likelihood of an event happening, insiders are the ones with the best information / signal. If you're placing bets without any reliable info you might as well be betting on dice rolls.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 10 Dec
#212341
That's the problem with prediction markets: the incentive to participate. I'd have to have some inside information to get a net positive return; game theory then suggests that the only people participating are those with inside information, which erodes my advantage.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @steakneggs 10 Dec
I don't really see it as a problem, that seems like the innovation.
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