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45 sats \ 4 replies \ @SimpleStacker 10 Dec \ on: New Polymarket Account Places $40k on NO Fed Rate Change Today econ

I can understand throwing a few dollars into prediction markets for fun, but I don't understand people who put serious money in markets with almost no safeguards against insider trading.

350 sats \ 2 replies \ @steakneggs 10 Dec

I think there should be more insider trading. If the purpose is to approximate the likelihood of an event happening, insiders are the ones with the best information / signal. If you're placing bets without any reliable info you might as well be betting on dice rolls.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 10 Dec

#212341

That's the problem with prediction markets: the incentive to participate. I'd have to have some inside information to get a net positive return; game theory then suggests that the only people participating are those with inside information, which erodes my advantage.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @steakneggs 10 Dec

I don't really see it as a problem, that seems like the innovation.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 10 Dec

There are a LOT of fools. When I am surprised by things I have to remind myself of this. Generations of guardrails or at least being told there are people protecting us has led to very foolish behaviors.