pull down to refresh
42 sats \ 11 replies \ @grayruby 7 Nov \ on: NFL Cross-Offs: week 10 Stacker_Sports
I selected the Bengals. Burrow is still at least a month away and they have a bye this week then play the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Bills, Ravens. They lose 2 of those games and already are at 8 losses. I think they lose more than 2.
By the same token, if they beat the Steelers and Ravens, they significantly tilt things in their favor.
reply
True but it seems unlikely they will win more than 1 of those 3 divisional games. Also, I like crossing of the Bengals while they are one bye so we can see one more game from the Texans and Falcons. One of them probably loses and gives us an easy cross off next week. The last few weeks of this are going to be interesting.
reply
Ok, but our whole theory for the Bengals is that they need to catch Pittsburg and stay ahead of the Ravens. This stretch is exactly when they can do that.
reply
They gave up 47 points last week and Burrow is at least another month away from coming back. He probably misses 4/5 if not all of that gauntlet of games so I am confident they cannot. I am more confident that the Falcons can somehow steal a win in a Euro game before they have a stretch of easier games or that the Texans can beat the Jags and their great defense can keep them alive, than I am that the Bengals can win 4 out of those 5 games.
reply
Alright, I'll dig into Atlanta a bit more, because my gut says they make more sense.
reply
reply
Even if they win 3/4, they're still only up to 6-5.
Then they have
Seahawks
Bucs
Cardinals
Rams
I can't see them being better than 7-8 coming out of that.
reply
Current playoff probabilities
Ravens 55%
Bengals 3%
Texans 19%
Cowboys 5%
Falcons 12%
Maybe we should be talking Cowboys vs Bengals rather than Falcons vs Bengals.
I should do a post with current playoff probabilities and we can look back at the end of the season and see how probability did.