Wall Street is optimistic about Ford’s EV reset and aluminum plant recovery plan
Ford shares finished up over 12% on Friday, with investors pouring into the company as it tackles EV losses and fallout from a devastating fire that slammed a major aluminum supplier. The day after the automaker posted earnings was its best day in the stock market since January 2022.
Investors’ optimism seems to have less to do with Ford’s performance of late — the automaker lowered the top range of its full-year EBIT forecast by $1 billion — and more to do with the steps it’s taking to clean things up.
Ford lost $1.4 billion on EVs in the third quarter, the unit’s deepest loss since 2023. That result came despite a sales surge as customers raced to qualify for the expiring $7,500 EV tax credit.
On the company’s earnings call Thursday, CEO Jim Farley said he believes EV adoption will be about 5% of the US market, below the 7.5% S&P Global cited earlier this month.
But Ford says it has a solution. The company is “prioritizing hybrids across our lineup, including the development of extended range hybrid options,” Farley said, and he also highlighted Ford’s new production platform, which will produce cheaper electric vehicles (including a $30,000 EV truck in 2027).
According to Farley, this plan is “right around the corner” and sourcing is 95% complete.
Ford also said it’s going to keep production of its F-150 Lightning paused, focusing instead on gas and hybrid trucks. That move, however, has less to do with its broader EV shift and more to do with aluminum, as electric vehicles use more of the metal.
The Takeaway
Ford is being more intentional about aluminum usage following the damaging fire at Novelis’ Oswego aluminum plant, which reportedly supplied 40% of the US auto industry’s aluminum sheet. The plant fire will ding Ford’s fourth-quarter earnings by between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, the company said. But Ford said it has “line of sight to mitigate at least $1 billion in 2026” and can “make up” roughly half of those losses next year by adding third shifts and new jobs.
Altogether, Wall Street seems impressed at how Ford has been navigating a few roadblocks that have materialized in its way. He